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Destocking, the bullwhip effect, and the credit crisis: Empirical modeling of supply chain dynamics

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  • Udenio, Maximiliano
  • Fransoo, Jan C.
  • Peels, Robert
Abstract
In this paper we analyze the strong sales dip observed in the manufacturing industry at the end of 2008, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent collapse of the financial world. We suggest that firms׳ desire to retain liquidity during these times prompted a reaction characterized by the reduction of working capital, which materialized as a synchronized reduction in target inventory levels across industries. We hypothesize that such a reaction effectively acted as an endogenous shock to supply chains, ultimately resulting in the bullwhip-effect kind of demand dynamics observed. To test this proposition we develop a system dynamics model that explicitly takes into account structural, operational, and behavioral parameters of supply chains aggregated at an echelon level. We calibrate the model for use in 4 different business units of a major chemical company in the Netherlands, all situated 4–5 levels upstream from consumer demands in their respective supply chains. We show that the model gives a very good historical fit of the sales developments during the period following the Lehman collapse. We test the model׳s robustness to behavioral parameter estimation errors through sensitivity analysis, and the de-stocking hypothesis against an alternative model. Finally, we observe that the empirical data is aligned with experimental observations regarding human behavioral mechanisms concerning target adjustment times.

Suggested Citation

  • Udenio, Maximiliano & Fransoo, Jan C. & Peels, Robert, 2015. "Destocking, the bullwhip effect, and the credit crisis: Empirical modeling of supply chain dynamics," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 34-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:160:y:2015:i:c:p:34-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.09.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Christopher M. Durugbo & Zainab Al-Balushi, 2023. "Supply chain management in times of crisis: a systematic review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 1179-1235, September.
    4. Hu, Fei & Zhao, Shangmei & Bing, Tao & Chang, Yiming, 2017. "Hierarchy in industrial structure: The cases of China and the USA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 871-882.
    5. Li Chen & Wei Luo & Kevin Shang, 2017. "Measuring the Bullwhip Effect: Discrepancy and Alignment Between Information and Material Flows," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 36-51, February.
    6. Lauri Saarinen & Hildur Oddsdottir & Obaid Rehman, 2024. "Resilience through appropriate response: a simulation study of disruptions and response strategies – case COVID-19 and the grocery supply chain," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 1078-1099, September.
    7. Katsoras, Efthymios & Georgiadis, Patroklos, 2022. "An integrated System Dynamics model for Closed Loop Supply Chains under disaster effects: The case of COVID-19," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    8. Di Ubaldo, Mattia, 2016. "Firms and trade in downturns," Economics PhD Theses 0416, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. María Escribano-Navas & German Gemar, 2021. "Gender and Bankruptcy: A Hotel Survival Econometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.
    10. Cannella, Salvatore & Dominguez, Roberto & Ponte, Borja & Framinan, Jose M., 2018. "Capacity restrictions and supply chain performance: Modelling and analysing load-dependent lead times," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 264-277.
    11. Xi Gang Yuan & Nan Zhu, 2016. "Bullwhip Effect Analysis in Two-Level Supply Chain Distribution Network Using Different Demand Forecasting Technology," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 33(03), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Mattia Di Ubaldo, 2015. "Product Cost-Share: a Catalyst of the Trade Collapse," Working Paper Series 8015, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. Fransoo, Jan C. & Udenio, Maximiliano, 2021. "The bullwhip effect," Other publications TiSEM 382aec81-b3b0-4696-bf00-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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