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Sugar-based beverage taxes and beverage prices: Evidence from South Africa's Health Promotion Levy

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  • Stacey, Nicholas
  • Mudara, Caroline
  • Ng, Shu Wen
  • van Walbeek, Corné
  • Hofman, Karen
  • Edoka, Ijeoma
Abstract
A growing number of jurisdictions are introducing taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in efforts to reduce sugar intake, obesity, and associated metabolic conditions. A key dimension of the impact of such taxes is how they induce changes in the prices of the taxed beverages and their un-taxed substitutes. At present these taxes have typically been based solely on volume. More recently, however, due to the potential to target the source of SSBs' health harms and to incentivize product reformulation, SSB taxes are being levied based on sugar content. In April of 2018 South Africa implemented such a tax, the Health Promotion Levy (HPL), at a rate of 0.021 ZAR (approximately 0.15 US cents) for each gram of sugar over an initial threshold of 4 g/100 ml. Drawing on a dataset of price observations (N = 71, 677) collected in South Africa between January 2013 and March 2019, we study changes in beverage prices following the introduction of the HPL. We find null price increases among un-taxed beverages and find significant price increases for carbonates, the largest taxed product category. However, within carbonates we find similar increases in price for low- and high-sugar brands, despite the underlying difference in tax liability. In addition, while we find evidence of product reformulation, we find significant price increases among the brands that reduced their sugar content. While the findings are broadly consistent with the price changes of volume-based SSB taxes, future considerations of price effects of sugar-based SSB taxes need to account for the opportunity for intra-firm heterogeneity in price response among large multi-product firms.

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  • Stacey, Nicholas & Mudara, Caroline & Ng, Shu Wen & van Walbeek, Corné & Hofman, Karen & Edoka, Ijeoma, 2019. "Sugar-based beverage taxes and beverage prices: Evidence from South Africa's Health Promotion Levy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1-1.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:238:y:2019:i:c:9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.112465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Cawley & David Frisvold & Anna Hill & David Jones, 2020. "The Impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Prices and Product Availability," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 605-628, June.
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    6. Caitlan Russell & Corne van Walbeek, 2016. "How does a Change in the Excise Tax on Beer Impact Beer Retail Prices in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 555-573, December.
    7. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David & Hill, Anna & Jones, David, 2019. "The impact of the Philadelphia beverage tax on purchases and consumption by adults and children," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
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    10. Ryota Nakamura & Andrew J Mirelman & Cristóbal Cuadrado & Nicolas Silva-Illanes & Jocelyn Dunstan & Marc Suhrcke, 2018. "Evaluating the 2014 sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Chile: An observational study in urban areas," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-22, July.
    11. John Cawley & Chelsea Crain & David Frisvold & David Jones, 2018. "The Pass-Through of the Largest Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: The Case of Boulder, Colorado," NBER Working Papers 25050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ifeanyichi, Martilord & Dim, Cyril & Bognini, Maeve & Kebede, Meskerem & Singh, Darshita & Onwujekwe, Obinna & Hargest, Rachel & Friebel, Rocco, 2024. "Can sugar taxes be used for financing surgical systems in Nigeria? A mixed-methods political economy analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122863, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Bercholz, Maxime & Ng, Shu Wen & Stacey, Nicholas & Swart, Elizabeth C., 2022. "Decomposing consumer and producer effects on sugar from beverage purchases after a sugar-based tax on beverages in South Africa," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    3. Alsukait, Reem & Wilde, Parke & Bleich, Sara N. & Singh, Gitanjali & Folta, Sara C., 2020. "Evaluating Saudi Arabia’s 50% carbonated drink excise tax: Changes in prices and volume sales," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    4. Goncalves, Judite & Merenda, Roxanne & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2023. "Not So Sweet: Impacts of a Soda Tax on Producers," IZA Discussion Papers 15968, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Libby Hattersley & Alan Fuchs & Alberto Gonima & Lynn Silver & Kate Mandeville, 2020. "Business, Employment, and Productivity Impacts of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Taxes," World Bank Publications - Reports 34082, The World Bank Group.
    6. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David, 2023. "Review: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages: Political economy, and effects on prices, purchases, and consumption," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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