[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matsoc/v102y2019icp15-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political business cycles in a dynamic bipartisan voting model

Author

Listed:
  • Jindapon, Paan
  • Van Essen, Matt
Abstract
We provide a microfoundation for the existence of political business cycles generalizing and extending the classic Nordhaus model. Using a differential games approach, we model the strategic interaction of legislators in an election period and show that cycles can exist in equilibrium. The existence and shape of cycles depend on the parameters of the model and the initial level of unemployment. In addition, we offer an extension of the model to incorporate presidential veto behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Jindapon, Paan & Van Essen, Matt, 2019. "Political business cycles in a dynamic bipartisan voting model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 15-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:102:y:2019:i:c:p:15-23
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2019.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489619300642
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2019.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation, and Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 201-236, March.
    2. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    3. Baron, David P. & Ferejohn, John A., 1989. "Bargaining in Legislatures," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(4), pages 1181-1206, December.
    4. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    5. Grandi, Umberto & Hughes, Daniel & Rossi, Francesca & Slinko, Arkadii, 2019. "Gibbard–Satterthwaite games for k-approval voting rules," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 24-35.
    6. Larry M. Bartels, 2016. "Unequal Democracy:The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10831.
    7. Allan Drazen, 2001. "The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 75-138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, April.
    9. Bernecker, Andreas, 2016. "Divided we reform? Evidence from US welfare policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 24-38.
    10. Etienne Sadi Kirschen, 1974. "Economic policies compared: West and East," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10956, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, September.
    12. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    13. Marc Nerlove, 1958. "Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(2), pages 227-240.
    14. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    15. John Duggan & Tasos Kalandrakis & Vikram Manjunath, 2008. "Dynamics of the Presidential Veto: A Computational," Wallis Working Papers WP56, University of Rochester - Wallis Institute of Political Economy.
    16. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
    17. Daniel Diermeier & Pohan Fong, 2011. "Legislative Bargaining with Reconsideration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 947-985.
    18. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    19. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 1-68.
    20. Anesi, Vincent & Duggan, John, 2017. "Dynamic bargaining and stability with veto players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 30-40.
    21. Prieur, Fabien & Zou, Benteng, 2018. "Climate politics: How public persuasion affects the trade-off between environmental and economic performance," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 63-72.
    22. Grimmett, Geoffrey R., 2019. "On influence and compromise in two-tier voting systems," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 35-45.
    23. Duggan, John & Kalandrakis, Tasos, 2012. "Dynamic legislative policy making," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1653-1688.
    24. Yoo, Keum-Rok, 1998. "Intervention Analysis of Electoral Tax Cycle: The Case of Japan," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 96(3-4), pages 241-258, September.
    25. Vincent Anesi & Daniel J. Seidmann, 2015. "Bargaining in Standing Committees with an Endogenous Default," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 825-867.
    26. Bhattacharyya, D K & Wassmer, Robert W, 1995. "Fiscal Dynamics of Local Elected Officials," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 83(3-4), pages 221-249, June.
    27. Blais, Andre & Nadeau, Richard, 1992. "The Electoral Budget Cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 389-403, December.
    28. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Political Models of the Business Cycle Should Be Revived," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(3), pages 442-465, July.
    29. Dockner,Engelbert J. & Jorgensen,Steffen & Long,Ngo Van & Sorger,Gerhard, 2000. "Differential Games in Economics and Management Science," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521637329, September.
    30. Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nunnari, Salvatore, 2021. "Dynamic legislative bargaining with veto power: Theory and experiments," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 186-230.
    2. Linda G. Veiga & Georgios Efthyvoulou & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2018. "Political Budget Cycles: Conditioning Factors and New Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 21/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Zapal, Jan, 2020. "Simple Markovian equilibria in dynamic spatial legislative bargaining," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Fuest, Clemens & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas & Ruthardt, Fabian, 2024. "Read my lips? Taxes and elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Potrafke, Niklas, 2020. "General or central government? Empirical evidence on political cycles in budget composition using new data for OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. George Petrakos & Konstantinos Rontos & Luca Salvati & Chara Vavoura & Ioannis Vavouras, 2022. "Toward a political budget cycle? Unveiling long-term latent paths in Greece," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3379-3394, October.
    7. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    8. Mahambare, Vidya & Dhanaraj, Sowmya & Mittal, Pragati, 2022. "The political budget cycles in the presence of a fiscal rule: The case of farm debt waivers in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 701-721.
    9. Dirk Foremny & Ronny Freier & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Mustafa Yeter, 2018. "Overlapping political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-27, October.
    10. César Martinelli & John Duggan, 2014. "The Political Economy of Dynamic Elections: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 1403, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    11. Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "The determinants of social expenditures in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 233-261, December.
    12. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
    13. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    14. Oliver Bachmann & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Ruben Seiberlich, 2021. "Partisan bias in inflation expectations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 513-536, March.
    15. Baldi, Guido & Forster, Stephan, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles: Evidence from Swiss Cantons," EconStor Preprints 195930, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Jan Kluge & Gunther Markwardt & Christian Thater, 2015. "Self-preserving Leviathans - Evidence from Regional-level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 5177, CESifo.
    17. Coulombe, Raphaelle G., 2021. "The electoral origin of government spending shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Isadora Sánchez-Torné & Macarena Pérez-Suárez & Juan Carlos Morán-Álvarez, 2020. "Una comparativa de la innovación de Espana y Rusia: ¿políticas bilaterales para la innovación?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 12(1), pages 201-233, June.
    19. Le Moglie, Marco & Turati, Gilberto, 2019. "Electoral cycle bias in the media coverage of corruption news," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 140-157.
    20. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:102:y:2019:i:c:p:15-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505565 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.