[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v88y2019ics0264837719304211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the filtering process and the ripple effect on the primary and secondary housing market in Warsaw, Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Brzezicka, Justyna
  • Łaszek, Jacek
  • Olszewski, Krzysztof
  • Waszczuk, Joanna
Abstract
The evolution of prices on the Warsaw (Poland) housing market was analyzed to identify the main drivers of market development. Newly developed housing and the existing housing stock were analyzed separatelywith a division into small, medium and large apartments (first stage of research). The macro-districts of the city of Warsaw were taken into account in the analysis (second stage of research). Complete data regarding individual transactions were not available; therefore, the analysis relied on changes in house prices in macro-districts between 2010Q1 and 2016Q4. In general, Poland still has a housing shortage, which is also visible in the capital city. Granger causality tests were performed to provide evidence for the filtering process and the ripple effect in selected market segment pairs. An increase in the prices of small apartments on the secondary market led to an increase in the prices of newly built medium-sized apartments. A similar correlation was noted between the prices of medium-sized apartments on the secondary market and the prices of newly built large apartments. The increase in housing prices in the city center tended to spill over to selected macro-districts. Our findings were confirmed by the vector autoregressive (VAR) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Brzezicka, Justyna & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2019. "Analysis of the filtering process and the ripple effect on the primary and secondary housing market in Warsaw, Poland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:88:y:2019:i:c:s0264837719304211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104098
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837719304211
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104098?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Cook & C. Thomas, 2003. "An alternative approach to examining the ripple effect in UK house prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(13), pages 849-851.
    2. Ira S. Lowry, 1960. "Filtering and Housing Standards: A Conceptual Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(4), pages 362-370.
    3. Andrejs Skaburskis & Kristopher Nelson, 2014. "Filtering and Gentrifying in Toronto: Neighbourhood Transitions in and out from the Lowest Income Decile between 1981 and 2006," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(4), pages 885-900, April.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
    5. Brzezicka Justyna & Łaszek Jacek & Olszewski Krzysztof, 2019. "An Analysis of the Relationships Between Domestic Real Estate Markets – A Systemic Approach," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 27(1), pages 79-91, March.
    6. Sweeney, James L., 1974. "A commodity hierarchy model of the rental housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 288-323, July.
    7. Jan K. Brueckner & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2009. "Gentrification and Neighborhood Housing Cycles: Will America's Future Downtowns Be Rich?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 725-743, November.
    8. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 708, European Central Bank.
    9. Arnott, Richard J. & Braid, Ralph M., 1997. "A filtering model with steady-state housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4-5), pages 515-546, August.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    11. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    12. Manzhynski, Siarhei & Źróbek, Sabina & Batura, Olga & Zysk, Elżbieta, 2018. "Why the market value of residential premises and the costs of its purchase differ: The examples of Belarus and Poland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 530-539.
    13. Hanna Augustyniak & Laszek Jacek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects," NBP Working Papers 143, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    14. Weicher, John C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 1988. "Filtering and housing markets: An empirical analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 21-40, January.
    15. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2014. "Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a "Repeat Income" Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 687-706, February.
    16. Susin, Scott, 2002. "Rent vouchers and the price of low-income housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 109-152, January.
    17. Sweeney, James L, 1974. "Quality, Commodity Hierarchies, and Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 147-167, January.
    18. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2018. "Can More Housing Supply Solve the Affordability Crisis? Evidence from a Neighborhood Choice Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Le Ma & Chunlu Liu, 2013. "Ripple effects of house prices: considering spatial correlations in geography and demography," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(3), pages 284-299, July.
    20. Margolis, Stephen E, 1982. "Depreciation of Housing: An Empirical Consideration of the Filtering Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 90-96, February.
    21. Robert Leszczynski & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2017. "An analysis of the primary and secondary housing market in Poland: evidence from the 17 largest cities," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 136-151.
    22. Braid, Ralph M., 1984. "The effects of government housing policies in a vintage filtering model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 272-296, November.
    23. Foryś Iwona, 2013. "Gentrification on the Example of Suburban Parts of the Szczecin Urban Agglomeration," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 5-14, September.
    24. Braid, Ralph M., 1986. "The comparative statics of a filtering model of housing with two income groups," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 437-448, August.
    25. Brzezicka, Justyna & Wisniewski, Radoslaw & Figurska, Marta, 2018. "Disequilibrium in the real estate market: Evidence from Poland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 515-531.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin Hu & Xuelei Xiong & Yuanyuan Cai & Feng Yuan, 2020. "The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Renigier-Biłozor, Małgorzata & Źróbek, Sabina & Walacik, Marek & Borst, Richard & Grover, Richard & d’Amato, Maurizio, 2022. "International acceptance of automated modern tools use must-have for sustainable real estate market development," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Chmielewska Aneta & Adamiczka Jerzy & Romanowski Michał, 2020. "Genetic Algorithm as Automated Valuation Model Component in Real Estate Investment Decisions System," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(4), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Arkadiusz Kuświk & Łukasz Mach & Łukasz Mikołajczyk & Marian Drymluch, 2021. "The influence of characteristics of estate developer’s apartments on the chance of selling them," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 167-190.
    5. Marek Walacik & Małgorzata Renigier‐Biłozor & Aneta Chmielewska & Artur Janowski, 2020. "Property sustainable value versus highest and best use analyzes," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 1755-1772, November.
    6. Brzezicka Justyna, 2022. "The Application of the Simplified Speculative Frame Method for Monitoring the Development of the Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(1), pages 84-98, March.
    7. Mateusz Tomal, 2022. "Testing for overall and cluster convergence of housing rents using robust methodology: evidence from Polish provincial capitals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 2023-2055, April.
    8. Renigier–Biłozor, Małgorzata & Chmielewska, Aneta & Kamasz, Ewelina, 2024. "The soft computing based model of investors’ condition and cognition on a real estate market," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mense, Andreas, 2020. "The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224569, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Liu, Liyi & McManus, Doug & Yannopoulos, Elias, 2022. "Geographic and temporal variation in housing filtering rates," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Jin Hu & Xuelei Xiong & Yuanyuan Cai & Feng Yuan, 2020. "The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    4. George Galster, 1996. "William Grigsby and the Analysis of Housing Sub-markets and Filtering," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(10), pages 1797-1805, December.
    5. Arnott, Richard J. & Braid, Ralph M., 1997. "A filtering model with steady-state housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4-5), pages 515-546, August.
    6. Li, Qiang & Nong, Huifu, 2022. "A closer look at Chinese housing market: Measuring intra-city submarket connectedness in Shanghai and Guangzhou," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2014. "Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a "Repeat Income" Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 687-706, February.
    8. Kaneko, Mamoru & Ito, Tamon & Osawa, Yu-ichi, 2006. "Duality in comparative statics in rental housing markets with indivisibilities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 142-170, January.
    9. Dayong Zhang & Qiang Ji & Wan-Li Zhao & Nicholas J Horsewood, 2021. "Regional housing price dependency in the UK: A dynamic network approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(5), pages 1014-1031, April.
    10. Kindström, Gabriella & Liang, Che-Yuan, 2024. "Does new housing for the rich benefit the poor? On trickle-down effects of new homes," SocArXiv u7hjv, Center for Open Science.
    11. Andrejs Skaburskis, 2006. "Filtering, City Change and the Supply of Low-priced Housing in Canada," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 43(3), pages 533-558, March.
    12. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2015. "Urban Land Use," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 467-560, Elsevier.
    13. Dominik Weiß & Claus Michelsen, 2011. "The improvement of housing conditions in post com-munist Germany – Market Mechanisms and Subsidy Impacts," ERSA conference papers ersa11p505, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Anas, Alex & Arnott, Richard J., 1997. "Taxes and allowances in a dynamic equilibrium model of urban housing with a size--quality hierarchy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4-5), pages 547-580, August.
    15. Leah Platt Boustan & Robert A. Margo, 2011. "White Suburbanization and African-American Home Ownership, 1940-1980," NBER Working Papers 16702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mense, Andreas, 2021. "Secondary housing supply," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    17. Ramon Sotelo, 2001. "Foundations of Home Ownership Policy - The Implementation of the Financing of Use as an Independent Finance Level," ERES eres2001_281, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    18. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.
    19. Lyndsey Rolheiser, 2021. "Old, small and unwanted: Post-war housing and neighbourhood socioeconomic status," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(14), pages 2952-2970, November.
    20. Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Ross, Stephen L., 2015. "Change and Persistence in the Economic Status of Neighborhoods and Cities," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1047-1120, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    filtering proces; ripple effect; housing market; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:88:y:2019:i:c:s0264837719304211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.