[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v35y2010i2p72-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Cuddington, John T
Abstract
Following the Boskin et al., (1996) report, it became widely recognized that price indexes in the U.S. and elsewhere overstate inflation. Svedberg and Tilton (2006) highlighted that this inflation bias may have important implications for estimated long-term trends in nonrenewable resource prices. ST construct an inflation-bias corrected CPI (and PPI) for the U.S. and use their corrected deflator(s) to define a so-called 'real real' price of copper. Their 'real real' price of copper is then used to re-estimate long-term trends in real copper prices. This paper proposes a quick method for obtaining inflation-bias-corrected estimates of long-run trends in real primary commodity prices directly from estimates in the published literature. Our approach obviates the need re-do existing empirical studies using a corrected or 'real real' price of nonrenewable resources. The two approaches are mathematically equivalent.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuddington, John T, 2010. "Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 72-76, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:72-76
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4207(09)00055-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2006. "The Boskin Commission Report: A Retrospective One Decade Later," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 12, pages 7-22, Spring.
    2. Svedberg, Peter & Tilton, John E., 2006. "The real, real price of nonrenewable resources: copper 1870-2000," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 501-519, March.
    3. Gordon, Robert-J, 1999. "The Boskin Commission Report and Its Aftermath," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 41-68, December.
    4. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Buchholz & Friedrich-W. Wellmer & Dennis Bastian & Maren Liedtke, 2020. "Leaning against the wind: low-price benchmarks for acting anticyclically in the metal markets," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 81-100, July.
    2. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Country terms of trade: trends, unit roots, over-differencing, endogeneity, time dummies, and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 767-796, September.
    3. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
    5. Fernandez, Viviana, 2015. "Commodity price excess co-movement from a historical perspective: 1900–2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 698-710.
    6. Fernandez, Viviana, 2014. "Linear and non-linear causality between price indices and commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-51.
    7. Biswas, Pritam & Sinha, Rabindra Kumar & Sen, Phalguni, 2023. "A review of state-of-the-art techniques for the determination of the optimum cut-off grade of a metalliferous deposit with a bibliometric mapping in a surface mine planning context," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. József Popp & Judit Oláh & Mária Farkas Fekete & Zoltán Lakner & Domicián Máté, 2018. "The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    9. Tapia Cortez, Carlos A. & Hitch, Michael & Sammut, Claude & Coulton, Jeff & Shishko, Robert & Saydam, Serkan, 2018. "Determining the embedding parameters governing long-term dynamics of copper prices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 186-197.
    10. Pan, Zhigang & Bai, Zhihong & Xing, Xiaochao & Wang, Zhufeng, 2024. "US inflation and global commodity prices: Asymmetric interdependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    12. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. C. A. Tapia Cortez & J. Coulton & C. Sammut & S. Saydam, 2018. "Determining the chaotic behaviour of copper prices in the long-term using annual price data," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Svedberg, Peter & Tilton, John E., 2011. "Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 91-93, March.
    15. Henckens, M.L.C.M. & Driessen, P.P.J. & Ryngaert, C. & Worrell, E., 2016. "The set-up of an international agreement on the conservation and sustainable use of geologically scarce mineral resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 92-101.
    16. Henckens, M.L.C.M. & van Ierland, E.C. & Driessen, P.P.J. & Worrell, E., 2016. "Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tilton, John E., 2013. "The terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 196-203.
    2. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
    3. Bianchi, Ana Maria, 2002. "For Different Audiences, Different Arguments: Economic Rhetoric at the Beginning of the Latin American School," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 291-305, September.
    4. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-De-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the amazon forest: impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 1514, Chaire Economie du climat.
    5. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    6. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Cuddington, John T. & Liang, Hong, "undated". "Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?," WIDER Working Papers 295505, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    9. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 521, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    13. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
    14. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Yunxiao, 2020. "Investigating properties of commodity price responses to real and nominal shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Growth Lab Working Papers 36, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    16. Kellard, Neil & Mark E Wohar, 2003. "Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 118, Royal Economic Society.
    17. Ourens, Guzmán, 2017. "Uneven growth in the extensive margin: explaining the lag of agricultural economies," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1704, CEPREMAP.
    18. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    19. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    20. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003. "The terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:72-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.