[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v72y2021ics0301420721000428.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the relation between Pandemic Disease Outbreak News and Crude oil, Gold, Gold mining, Silver and Energy Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Shaikh, Imlak
Abstract
Fear of the disease outbreak news (DONs) has shocked commodity markets and raised the likelihood of economic uncertainty and recession globally. This article examines the unprecedented overreaction of investors sentiments in the commodities such as Crude oil, Gold, Gold Mining, Silver, and the Energy sector. The deadly effects of DONs-COVID-19 in the commodities market have been the worst in history; it appeared the first time higher than the common stock's volatility. Covid-19 induced economic uncertainty has impacted severely through all commodities except the safe-haven Gold (GVZ). Importantly, ETF Options based Implied Volatility Index of Crude (OVX), Silver (VXSLV), and Energy (VXXLE) stocks have crossed the peak level what it was prevailing during the global financial crisis 2008. The unparalleled upsurge of the implied volatility index across all commodities indicates higher demand for the hedge funds to protects the commodity portfolio. ETF options on the commodity act as the best hedge against market uncertainty. Overburden on the put option results in an increased risk premium, henceforth higher expected volatility. ETF options truly measure the investor's fear of predominant in the commodity market.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaikh, Imlak, 2021. "On the relation between Pandemic Disease Outbreak News and Crude oil, Gold, Gold mining, Silver and Energy Markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721000428
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420721000428
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    4. Steven Li & Qianqian Yang, 2009. "The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 405-419, May.
    5. Kowalewski, Oskar & Śpiewanowski, Piotr, 2020. "Stock market response to potash mine disasters," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    8. Ling Cen & Hai Lu & Liyan Yang, 2013. "Investor Sentiment, Disagreement, and the Breadth--Return Relationship," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1076-1091, May.
    9. Marc Suhrcke & David Stuckler & Jonathan E Suk & Monica Desai & Michaela Senek & Martin McKee & Svetla Tsolova & Sanjay Basu & Ibrahim Abubakar & Paul Hunter & Boika Rechel & Jan C Semenza, 2011. "The Impact of Economic Crises on Communicable Disease Transmission and Control: A Systematic Review of the Evidence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(6), pages 1-12, June.
    10. Scott R Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J Davis & Kyle Kost & Marco Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 742-758.
    11. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    12. Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision‐Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, April.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Ichev, Riste & Marinč, Matej, 2018. "Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 153-166.
    15. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dustin L. Pendell & Chulgu Cho, 2013. "Stock Market Reactions to Contagious Animal Disease Outbreaks: An Event Study in Korean Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Outbreaks," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 455-468, September.
    17. Chun-Da Chen & Chin-Chun Chen & Wan-Wei Tang & Bor-Yi Huang, 2009. "The positive and negative impacts of the sars outbreak:a case of the Taiwan industries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(1), pages 281-293, September.
    18. Donadelli, Michael & Kizys, Renatas & Riedel, Max, 2017. "Dangerous infectious diseases: Bad news for Main Street, good news for Wall Street?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 84-103.
    19. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2010. "Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 535-553, April.
    20. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    21. Yi-Hsien Wang & Fu-Ju Yang & Li-Je Chen, 2013. "An investor's perspective on infectious diseases and their influence on market behavior," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(sup1), pages 112-127, June.
    22. Charles J. Corrado & Thomas W. Miller, Jr., 2005. "The forecast quality of CBOE implied volatility indexes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 339-373, April.
    23. Guy Kaplanski & Haim Levy, 2012. "The holiday and Yom Kippur War sentiment effects: the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE)," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 1283-1298, June.
    24. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: Volatility spillovers and financial policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    25. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Balli, Faruk & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Time and frequency domain quantile coherence of emerging stock markets with gold and oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    26. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Xuehong & Niu, Zibo & Zhang, Hongwei & Huang, Jiaxin & Zuo, Xuguang, 2022. "Can gold and bitcoin hedge against the COVID-19 related news sentiment risk? New evidence from a NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Bouri, Elie & Lei, Xiaojie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Connectedness in implied higher-order moments of precious metals and energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    3. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Del Lo, Gaye & Yuni, Denis, 2023. "Global commodity and equity markets spillovers to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. AHMAD TIBRIZI SONI Wicaksono & ARIEF Mufraini & TITIS Miranti & MUHAMMAD KHAERUL Muttaqien, 2023. "Bitcoin Vs Gold: Which One Is The Most Powerful In Boosting The Shariah Equity Index? Global Evidence," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 18(1), pages 5-36, April.
    5. Arfaoui, Nadia & Yousaf, Imran & Jareño, Francisco, 2023. "Return and volatility connectedness between gold and energy markets: Evidence from the pre- and post-COVID vaccination phases," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 617-634.
    6. Daniel Stefan Armeanu & Stefan Cristian Gherghina & Jean Vasile Andrei & Camelia Catalina Joldes, 2022. "Modeling the impact of the COVID‐19 outbreak on environment, health sector and energy market," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1387-1416, October.
    7. Ahmad, Wasim & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Saini, Seema & Mishra, Ritesh Kumar, 2021. "The US equity sectors, implied volatilities, and COVID-19: What does the spillover analysis reveal?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Wang, Cheng & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2023. "Intraday and overnight tail risks and return predictability in the crude oil market: Evidence from oil-related regular news and extreme shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yahya, Farzan, 2024. "Mitigating energy instability: The influence of trilemma choices, financial development, and technology advancements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.
    11. Zhang, Hongwei & Hong, Huojun & Guo, Yaoqi & Yang, Cai, 2022. "Information spillover effects from media coverage to the crude oil, gold, and Bitcoin markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 267-285.
    12. Mensi, Walid & Lee, Yun-Jung & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Quantile connectedness among gold, gold mining, silver, oil and energy sector uncertainty indexes," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Dylan Norbert Gono & Herlina Napitupulu & Firdaniza, 2023. "Silver Price Forecasting Using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    14. Wang, Lu & Guan, Li & Ding, Qian & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of COVID-19 news on the connectedness of the green energy, dirty energy, and non-ferrous metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. An Cheng & Tonghui Chen & Guogang Jiang & Xinru Han, 2021. "Can Major Public Health Emergencies Affect Changes in International Oil Prices?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-13, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Imlak Shaikh, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the energy markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 433-484, February.
    2. ATM Adnan & Sameer Al Johani, 2023. "Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Industry Analysis in Frontier Market," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 12(2), pages 157-181, July.
    3. Elżbieta Kacperska & Jakub Kraciuk, 2021. "Changes in the Stock Market of Food Industry Companies during the COVID-19 Pandemic—A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Ichev, Riste & Marinč, Matej, 2018. "Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 153-166.
    5. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Quiñoá-Piñeiro, Lara & Pérez-Pico, Ada M., 2022. "US biopharmaceutical companies' stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the concept of the ‘paradoxical spiral’ from a sustainability perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Wasim ul Rehman & Omur Saltik & Faryal Jalil & Suleyman Degirmen, 2024. "Viral decisions: unmasking the impact of COVID-19 info and behavioral quirks on investment choices," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2021. "Profiting on the Stock Market in Pandemic Times: Study of COVID-19 Effects on CESEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Kliger, Doron & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "The High Holidays: Psychological mechanisms of honesty in real-life financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 121-137.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Shaik, Muneer, 2022. "Islamic Stock indices and COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 282-293.
    10. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Power, David M., 2022. "Infectious diseases tracking and sectoral stock market returns: A quantile regression analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Aloui, Chaker, 2021. "How world uncertainties and global pandemics destabilized food, energy and stock markets? Fresh evidence from quantile on quantile regressions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Kok Jun Tan & Mohd Edil Abd Sukor, 2023. "The Effects of Lockdown, Economic Stimulus Packages and National Recovery Plan Announcements on the Malaysian Stock Market," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 31(1), pages 73-84.
    13. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    14. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Bhanwar Singh & Rosy Dhall & Sahil Narang & Savita Rawat, 2024. "The Outbreak of COVID-19 and Stock Market Responses: An Event Study and Panel Data Analysis for G-20 Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(3), pages 606-631, June.
    16. Chi‐Chuan Lee & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Yizhong Wu, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on hospitality stock returns in China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1787-1800, April.
    17. Baek, Seungho & Mohanty, Sunil K. & Glambosky, Mina, 2020. "COVID-19 and stock market volatility: An industry level analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    18. Tingqiu Cao & Xianhang Qian & Le Zhang, 2024. "The price of the slow lane: Traffic congestion and stock block trading premium," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 30-52, March.
    19. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    20. Isabel Carrillo-Hidalgo & Juan Ignacio Pulido-Fernández & José Luis Durán-Román & Jairo Casado-Montilla, 2023. "COVID-19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain: medium-term relationship through dynamic regression models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Crude oil; Implied volatility index; Gold; Silver; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721000428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.