[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v43y2021i2p376-393.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public investment and growth: Lessons learned from 60-years experience in Southern Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Papagni, Erasmo
  • Lepore, Amedeo
  • Felice, Emanuele
  • Baraldi, Anna Laura
  • Alfano, Maria Rosaria
Abstract
This article analyses the contribution of public investment to economic growth in Southern Italy in the second half of the twentieth century (1951–2011). The Bai–Perron tests suggest that economic growth followed three distinct regimes: accelerated growth in the years 1951–1973 (average growth rate 5.3%); low growth in the period 1974–1995 (average growth rate 1.6%); zero growth on average after 1995. Using cointegration analysis, we find a positive effect of public investment on per unit of labour output of the Mezzogiorno in the whole period, 1951–2011. However, the estimates of the model show statistically significant parameters of public investment in the first regime, but not in the second regime, when economic growth is sustained by business investment and technical change. The last phase of growth sees the negative influence of the social and institutional environment on the functioning of the economy. The different impact of public investment on growth over time is ascribed to changes in the quality of institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Papagni, Erasmo & Lepore, Amedeo & Felice, Emanuele & Baraldi, Anna Laura & Alfano, Maria Rosaria, 2021. "Public investment and growth: Lessons learned from 60-years experience in Southern Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 376-393.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:2:p:376-393
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189382030003X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Moller, Lars Christian & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2017. "Explaining Ethiopia’s Growth Acceleration—The Role of Infrastructure and Macroeconomic Policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 198-215.
    4. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    5. Mamatzakis, E.C., 2007. "EU infrastructure investment and productivity in Greek manufacturing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 335-344.
    6. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "The roots of a dual equilibrium: GDP, productivity, and structural change in the Italian regions in the long run (1871–2011)," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(4), pages 499-528.
    7. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    9. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1994. "Public investment in infrastructure in a simple growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1173-1187, November.
    10. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 645-661.
    11. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    12. César Calderón & Enrique Moral‐Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, March.
    13. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    14. Emanuele Felice & Amedeo Lepore, 2017. "State intervention and economic growth in Southern Italy: the rise and fall of the ‘Cassa per il Mezzogiorno’ (1950–1986)," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(3), pages 319-341, April.
    15. Del Monte, Alfredo & Papagni, Erasmo, 2007. "The determinants of corruption in Italy: Regional panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 379-396, June.
    16. Bronzini, Raffaello & Piselli, Paolo, 2009. "Determinants of long-run regional productivity with geographical spillovers: The role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 187-199, March.
    17. Pereira, Alfred M. & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2001. "Infrastructures and private sector performance in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 371-384, May.
    18. Del Monte, Alfredo & Papagni, Erasmo, 2001. "Public expenditure, corruption, and economic growth: the case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, March.
    19. Wang, Eric C., 2002. "Public infrastructure and economic growth: a new approach applied to East Asian economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 411-435, August.
    20. Everaert, Gerdie, 2003. "Balanced growth and public capital: an empirical analysis with I(2) trends in capital stock data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 741-763, July.
    21. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    22. Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
    23. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    24. Federico Bonaglia & Eliana La Ferrara & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2000. "Public Capital and Economic Performance: Evidence from Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 59(2), pages 221-244, September.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    26. Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
    27. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    28. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    29. Céline Carrère & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 7, pages 167-196, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    31. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
    32. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    33. Qunyong Wang & Na Wu, 2012. "Long-run covariance and its applications in cointegration regression," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(3), pages 525-542, September.
    34. Lucio Picci, 1999. "Productivity and Infrastructure in the Italian Regions," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 58(3-4), pages 329-353, December.
    35. Bottasso, Anna & Castagnetti, Carolina & Conti, Maurizio, 2013. "And yet they Co-move! Public capital and productivity in OECD," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 713-729.
    36. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    37. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    38. Baraldi A. Laura, 2008. "Effects of Electoral Rules, Political Competition and Corruption on the Size and Composition of Government Consumption Spending: An Italian Regional Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-37, July.
    39. Sturm, Jan-egbert & Jacobs, Jan & Groote, Peter, 1999. "Output Effects of Infrastructure Investment in the Netherlands, 1853-1913," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 355-380, April.
    40. Pina, Alvaro Manuel & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2005. "Comparing macroeconomic returns on human and public capital: An empirical analysis of the Portuguese case (1960-2001)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 585-598, July.
    41. Sergio Destefanis & Vania Sena, 2005. "Public capital and total factor productivity: New evidence from the Italian regions, 1970-98," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 603-617.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mauro, Luciano & Pigliaru, Francesco, 2023. "Italy’s National Recovery and Resilient Plan: Will it Narrow the North-South Productivity Gap?," FEEM Working Papers 338592, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Finocchiaro Castro, Massimo & Guccio, Calogero & Rizzo, Ilde, 2023. "“One-size-fits-all” public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 994-1014.
    3. Massimo Finocchiaro Castroa & Calogero Guccio & Ilde Rizzo, 2023. "How 'one-size-fits-all' public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy," Papers 2304.10776, arXiv.org.
    4. Tamai, Toshiki, 2023. "The rate of discount on public investments with future bias in an altruistic overlapping generations model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Fanti, Lucrezia & Pereira, Marcelo C. & Virgillito, Maria Enrica, 2023. "The North-South divide: Sources of divergence, policies for convergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 405-429.
    6. Niittymies, Aleksi & Pajunen, Kalle & Lamberg, Juha-Antti, 2022. "Temporality and firm de-internationalization: Three historical approaches," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(6).
    7. Federico Aresu & Emanuela Marrocu & Raffaele Paci, 2023. "Public capital and institutions' quality in the Italian regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1284-1308, November.
    8. Trần Vân Anh, 2022. "State Management of Public Investment for Development: Empirical Study at Thai Binh Province of Vietnam," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 2133-2133, December.
    9. Elisabetta Venezia, 2023. "Cost–Benefit Analysis in High-Speed Railway Projects: Appraisal of Methodological Approaches and an Initial Social Equity Evaluation, A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-18, July.
    10. Bação, Pedro & Duarte, Joshua & Simões, Marta, 2024. "Social expenditure composition, inequality and growth in the OECD: Labour market policies are most effective," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 75-89.
    11. Tony Ward, 2024. "Ritalin, Animal Spirits and the Productivity Puzzle," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 57(2), pages 129-142, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erasmo Papagni & Amedeo Lepore & Emanuele Felice & Anna Laura Baraldi & Maria Rosaria Alfano, 2018. "Public Investment and Growth Accelerations: The Case of Southern Italy, 1951-1995," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    2. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    3. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    4. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    5. Silvia Bertarelli, 2006. "Public capital and growth," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 361-398.
    6. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber, 2013. "Australasian money demand stability: application of structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1011-1025, March.
    7. Nag, Biswajit & Mukherjee, Jaydeep, 2012. "The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 519-526.
    8. Ketenci, Natalya, 2014. "The Feldstein –Horioka Puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from the largest countries of Asia," MPRA Paper 54660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in groupings of OECD members: A panel approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 76-87.
    10. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Infrastructures: A Literature Review and Empirical Analysis on the Case of Italy," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    11. Sami, Janesh, 2021. "Has the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices really disappeared? Evidence from an emerging market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Structural Breaks: Evidence from the Largest Countries of Asia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-354, August.
    13. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    14. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    15. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    16. Philipp Lieberknecht & Philip Vermeulen, 2022. "Wealth and income inequality in the long run," Working Papers 2022-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    17. Getu Hailu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink, 2015. "Empirical analysis of corn and soybean basis in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(51), pages 5491-5509, November.
    18. Juergen Amann & Paul Middleditch, 2017. "Growth in a time of austerity: evidence from the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 349-375, September.
    19. de Jesus, Diego Pitta & Lenin Souza Bezerra, Bruno Felipe & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio, 2020. "The non-linear relationship between oil prices and stock prices: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public investment; Growth instability; Cointegration; Structural breaks; Southern Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:2:p:376-393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.