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Market power, inflation targeting, and commodity currencies

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  • Chen, Yu-chin
  • Lee, Dongwon
Abstract
The ‘commodity currency’ literature highlights the robust exchange rate response to fluctuations in global commodity prices that occurs for major commodity exporters. The magnitude of the response, however, varies widely across countries and over time horizons. This paper examines the real exchange rates of 51 commodity exporters over the period from 1980 to 2010, and finds that in the long-run, a higher degree of market power in the world commodity trade can reduce the exchange rate response, while in the short-run, an inflation targeting regime can amplify it. These differential impacts across countries and horizons are of particular relevance for monetary policy-making and for trade strategy in commodity-abundant economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu-chin & Lee, Dongwon, 2018. "Market power, inflation targeting, and commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 122-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:122-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.07.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Gasanov, 2021. "Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed? The Case of Russia," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 162-171, May.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Theodora Bermpei, 2022. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," EconomiX Working Papers 2022-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    4. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Testing the Present‐Value Model of the Exchange Rate with Commodity Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 589-596, March.
    5. Bermpei, Theodora & Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Erdoğan, Fatma & Tarı, Elif Nur, 2022. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between real exchange rate and real commodity prices for emerging market economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Lee, Dongwon, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade volatility and industry growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Wang, Wenhao & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2023. "Commodity price effects on currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Kai Chen & Dongwon Lee, 2023. "Commodity currency reactions and the Dutch disease: the role of capital controls," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2065-2089, November.
    10. Albaity, Mohamed & Noman, Abu Hanifa Md. & Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Cyclicality of bank credit growth: Conventional vs Islamic banks in the GCC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    11. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo B. de Mattos & João E. de Lima, 2021. "Commodity prices and the Brazilian real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3152-3172, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity price; Inflation targeting; Market power; Panel cointegration; Real exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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