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Weather variability risks slow climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of forestry

Author

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  • Johnson, Kelsey K.
  • Lewis, David J.
Abstract
The timing of climate adaptation decisions can have substantial consequences for the assessment of climate damages. Since weather variability can create risks for natural resource management that differ across adaptation choices, such variability has the potential to alter the speed of climate adaptation. This paper estimates the effect of weather variability on the timing of adaptation decisions of forest landowners in the Eastern United States. A discrete-choice econometric model of forest management is estimated and used in a bio-economic simulation that shows how variability in cold temperatures can significantly slow the rate of adapting from cold-tolerant natural hardwood forests to cold-sensitive, but highly valuable pine plantations. The range of weather variability in climate projections and across the landscape generates large differences in adaptation timing. Ignoring projected future decreases in weather variability results in a large downward bias in estimating future paths of climate adaptation. Since pine plantations produce fewer non-market ecosystem services than natural hardwood forests, an important source of future conservation uncertainty is the economic response of private forest landowners to changing weather variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson, Kelsey K. & Lewis, David J., 2024. "Weather variability risks slow climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of forestry," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:125:y:2024:i:c:s0095069624000743
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate adaptation; Forestry; Weather variability; Econometric model; Land-use modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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