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Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes

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  • ter Ellen, Saskia
  • Hommes, Cars H.
  • Zwinkels, Remco C.J.
Abstract
We estimate an endowment-based asset pricing model in which agents have heterogeneous and time-varying beliefs about the future price on a range of asset classes. This gives insight into the extent behaviour differs across assets, and what this implies for market stability. We find evidence for behavioural heterogeneity for all asset classes but equity. Heterogeneity is especially large and persistent in asset classes for which limits to arbitrage are more binding. In less constrained (financial) markets, agents update their beliefs more frequently. Consequently, the probability of behavioural bubbles and crashes is substantially higher in macroeconomic asset classes than in financial asset classes.

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  • ter Ellen, Saskia & Hommes, Cars H. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 747-769.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:185:y:2021:i:c:p:747-769
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.12.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    2. Li, Xiao-Ping & Zhou, Chun-Yang & Tong, Bin, 2019. "Carry trades, agent heterogeneity and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 343-358.
    3. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    4. Filippo Gusella, 2022. "Detecting And Measuring Financial Cycles In Heterogeneous Agents Models: An Empirical Analysis," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02n03), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Domenico Delli Gatti & Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Endogenous vs Exogenous Instability: An Out-of-Sample Comparison," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_05.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    6. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2018. "A laboratory experiment on the heuristic switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 21-42.
    7. Pelster, Matthias & Hofmann, Annette, 2018. "About the fear of reputational loss: Social trading and the disposition effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-88.
    8. Chernulich, Aleksei, 2021. "Modelling reference dependence for repeated choices: A horse race between models of normalisation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2022. "A State-Space Approach for Time-Series Prediction of an Heterogeneous Agent Model," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_20.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    10. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Heterogeneous expectations; Market stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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