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Measuring preferences over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty

Author

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  • Meissner, Thomas
  • Pfeiffer, Philipp
Abstract
Timing premia measure how much consumption people are willing to forgo to resolve all consumption uncertainty immediately. We develop a novel experiment to elicit these attitudes directly in a model-free way. On average, subjects forgo around 5% of their total consumption to resolve all uncertainty immediately. Recursive utility models postulate a structural link between timing premia and deep preference parameters. We elicit these preference parameters separately and estimate corresponding predicted timing premia. Comparing directly elicited and predicted timing premia allows us to test this structural link. Surprisingly, we find a negative correlation between predicted and elicited timing premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Meissner, Thomas & Pfeiffer, Philipp, 2022. "Measuring preferences over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:200:y:2022:i:c:s0022053121001964
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105379
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    4. Koimisis, Georgios & Giannikos, Christos I., 2024. "Inequality, premium and the timing of resolution of uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Thomas Meissner & David Albrecht, 2022. "Debt Aversion: Theory and Measurement," Papers 2207.07538, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    6. Schlag, Christian & Thimme, Julian & Weber, Rüdiger, 2020. "Implied Volatility Duration: A measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution," SAFE Working Paper Series 265, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recursive utility; Timing of resolution of uncertainty; Preference elicitation; Timing premia; Risk and time preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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