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Do superpower interventions have short and long term consequences for democracy?

Author

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  • Berger, Daniel
  • Corvalan, Alejandro
  • Easterly, William
  • Satyanath, Shanker
Abstract
The United States’ wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have revived again the phenomenon of “regime change” that was thought to have died with the Cold War. We study Cold War “regime changes” for insight, although of course they do not extrapolate exactly to modern events. The recent declassification of Cold War documents now makes it possible to develop a new time series cross section dataset of superpower interventions during the Cold War which takes account of interventions by the secret services. We find that US interventions to prop up a leader are associated with significant short term and medium term declines in democracy in the intervened country. We observe a similar size effect for Soviet interventions, but they are not robustly significant like US interventions. Although the negative effect of interventions dissipates once the intervention ends, an intervention has a large effect on democracy when it lasts for a long time.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Daniel & Corvalan, Alejandro & Easterly, William & Satyanath, Shanker, 2013. "Do superpower interventions have short and long term consequences for democracy?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 22-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:41:y:2013:i:1:p:22-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2013.01.004
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    6. Absher, Samuel & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2023. "The consequences of CIA-sponsored regime change in Latin America," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Clayton Thyne & Kendall Hitch, 2020. "Democratic versus Authoritarian Coups: The Influence of External Actors on States’ Postcoup Political Trajectories," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(10), pages 1857-1884, November.
    8. Manoel Bittencourt, 2014. "Education and Fertility: Panel Time-Series Evidence from Southern Africa," Working Papers 201402, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
    10. Dov H. Levin, 2019. "A Vote for Freedom? The Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions on Regime Type," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(4), pages 839-868, April.
    11. Donoghoe Mark W. & Marschner Ian C., 2015. "Flexible Regression Models for Rate Differences, Risk Differences and Relative Risks," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 91-108, May.
    12. Manoel Bittencourt & Renee van Eyden & Monaheng Seleteng, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth in the SADC: Some Panel Time-Series Evidence," Working Papers 201354, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    14. Ahmed, Faisal Z. & Schwab, Daniel & Werker, Eric, 2021. "The political transfer problem: How cross-border financial windfalls affect democracy and civil war," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 313-339.
    15. Manoel Bittencourt & Reneé Eyden & Monaheng Seleteng, 2015. "Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 411-424, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy; Institutions; Coups; Cold War; CIA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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