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Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns

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  • Cakici, Nusret
  • Zaremba, Adam
Abstract
We hypothesize that local economic discomfort influences investors’ risk aversion, leading to cross-sectional variation in risk premia in segmented equity markets. To test this assertion, we employ the misery index (MI)—which aggregates both unemployment and inflation rates—as a gauge of macroeconomic welfare. Using six decades of data from 69 markets, we demonstrate that economic discomfort reliably predicts cross-sectional stock returns. A quartile of countries with the highest MI outperforms those with the lowest by 0.74% per month. The effect prevails in markets where prices are set locally and gradually declines over time as markets become more integrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:149:y:2023:i:c:s0378426623000043
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106760
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity indices; International markets; Asset pricing; Equity anomalies; Return predictability; The cross-section of stock returns; The misery index; Inflation; Unemployment; Market segmentation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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