[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbvent/v31y2016i4p408-427.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Variable risk preferences in new firm growth and survival

Author

Listed:
  • Wennberg, Karl
  • Delmar, Frédéric
  • McKelvie, Alexander
Abstract
We outline and test a decision-making theory of new venture growth and survival. Building upon research in entrepreneurship and decision making under risk, we hypothesize that entrepreneurs' attention to survival and aspiration reference points changes based on venture age (experience-based learning), size (differences in decision complexity), and performance decision domain. Examining a panel of 14,760 new ventures in the professional services sector, our findings show how risk preferences change as a venture ages and increases in size. This approach offers a more nuanced view of decision making under risk and provides a theoretical explanation for the common patterns of new ventures' probability of exit and growth diminishing with age and size.

Suggested Citation

  • Wennberg, Karl & Delmar, Frédéric & McKelvie, Alexander, 2016. "Variable risk preferences in new firm growth and survival," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 408-427.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbvent:v:31:y:2016:i:4:p:408-427
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2016.05.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S088390261630009X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2016.05.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    2. Delmar, Frédéric & Wennberg, Karl & Hellerstedt, Karin, 2011. "Endogenous growth through knowledge spillovers in entrepreneurship: An empirical test," Ratio Working Papers 165, The Ratio Institute.
    3. Wiklund, Johan & Baker, Ted & Shepherd, Dean, 2010. "The age-effect of financial indicators as buffers against the liability of newness," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 423-437, July.
    4. Delmar, Frédéric & McKelvie, Alexander & Wennberg, Karl, 2013. "Untangling the relationships among growth, profitability and survival in new firms," Ratio Working Papers 205, The Ratio Institute.
    5. P. A. Geroski & José Mata & Pedro Portugal, 2010. "Founding conditions and the survival of new firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 510-529, May.
    6. Philip Bromiley, 2010. "Looking at prospect theory," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1357-1370, December.
    7. Majumdar, Sumit K., 2004. "The hidden hand and the license raj to An evaluation of the relationship between age and the growth of firms in India," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 107-125, January.
    8. Vinit M. Desai, 2008. "Constrained Growth: How Experience, Legitimacy, and Age Influence Risk Taking in Organizations," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 594-608, August.
    9. Alexander McKelvie & Johan Wiklund, 2010. "Advancing Firm Growth Research: A Focus on Growth Mode Instead of Growth Rate," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 34(2), pages 261-288, March.
    10. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    11. Wennberg, Karl & Wiklund, Johan & DeTienne, Dawn R. & Cardon, Melissa S., 2010. "Reconceptualizing entrepreneurial exit: Divergent exit routes and their drivers," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 361-375, July.
    12. Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March.
    13. Delmar, Frederic & Shane, Scott, 2004. "Legitimating first: organizing activities and the survival of new ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 385-410, May.
    14. Ashish Arora & Anand Nandkumar, 2011. "Cash-Out or Flameout! Opportunity Cost and Entrepreneurial Strategy: Theory, and Evidence from the Information Security Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(10), pages 1844-1860, October.
    15. Steven Klepper & Sally Sleeper, 2005. "Entry by Spinoffs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(8), pages 1291-1306, August.
    16. Jonathan P. O'Brien & Timothy B. Folta & Douglas R. Johnson, 2003. "A real options perspective on entrepreneurial entry in the face of uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 515-533.
    17. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," Working Papers 10-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. Yuri Mishina & Timothy G. Pollock & Joseph F. Porac, 2004. "Are more resources always better for growth? Resource stickiness in market and product expansion," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(12), pages 1179-1197, December.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Kazanjian, Robert K. & Drazin, Robert, 1990. "A stage-contingent model of design and growth for technology based new ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 137-150, May.
    21. Mathias, Blake D. & Williams, David W. & Smith, Adam R., 2015. "Entrepreneurial inception: The role of imprinting in entrepreneurial action," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 11-28.
    22. Levinthal, Daniel & March, James G., 1981. "A model of adaptive organizational search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 307-333, December.
    23. Brian Wu & Anne Marie Knott, 2006. "Entrepreneurial Risk and Market Entry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1315-1330, September.
    24. Gavin Cassar, 2010. "Are individuals entering self‐employment overly optimistic? an empirical test of plans and projections on nascent entrepreneur expectations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 822-840, August.
    25. Ciaran Heavey & Zeki Simsek, 2015. "Transactive Memory Systems and Firm Performance: An Upper Echelons Perspective," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 941-959, August.
    26. Robert M. Wiseman & Philip Bromiley, 1996. "Toward a Model of Risk in Declining Organizations: An Empirical Examination of Risk, Performance and Decline," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 7(5), pages 524-543, October.
    27. Davidsson, Per & Steffens, Paul & Fitzsimmons, Jason, 2009. "Growing profitable or growing from profits: Putting the horse in front of the cart?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 388-406, July.
    28. DeTienne, Dawn R. & Shepherd, Dean A. & De Castro, Julio O., 2008. "The fallacy of "only the strong survive": The effects of extrinsic motivation on the persistence decisions for under-performing firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 528-546, September.
    29. Royston Greenwood & Stan X. Li & Rajshree Prakash & David L. Deephouse, 2005. "Reputation, Diversification, and Organizational Explanations of Performance in Professional Service Firms," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(6), pages 661-673, December.
    30. Theresa K. Lant & Stephen J. Mezias, 1992. "An Organizational Learning Model of Convergence and Reorientation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 47-71, February.
    31. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    32. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    33. Daniel A. Levinthal & James G. March, 1993. "The myopia of learning," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S2), pages 95-112, December.
    34. James G. March & Zur Shapira, 1987. "Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(11), pages 1404-1418, November.
    35. Delmar, Frederic & Davidsson, Per & Gartner, William B., 2003. "Arriving at the high-growth firm," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 189-216, March.
    36. McCarthy, Anne M. & Schoorman, F. David & Cooper, Arnold C., 1993. "Reinvestment decisions by entrepreneurs: Rational decision-making or escalation of commitment?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 9-24, January.
    37. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    38. Bamford, Charles E. & Dean, Thomas J. & Douglas, Thomas J., 2004. "The temporal nature of growth determinants in new bank foundings: implications for new venture research design," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 899-919, November.
    39. Chandler, Gaylen N. & McKelvie, Alexander & Davidsson, Per, 2009. "Asset specificity and behavioral uncertainty as moderators of the sales growth -- Employment growth relationship in emerging ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 373-387, July.
    40. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    41. Coad, Alex & Frankish, Julian & Roberts, Richard G. & Storey, David J., 2013. "Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 615-632.
    42. Pino G. Audia & Henrich R. Greve, 2006. "Less Likely to Fail: Low Performance, Firm Size, and Factory Expansion in the Shipbuilding Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 83-94, January.
    43. Busenitz, Lowell W. & Barney, Jay B., 1997. "Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-30, January.
    44. Levesque, Moren & Minniti, Maria, 2006. "The effect of aging on entrepreneurial behavior," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 177-194, March.
    45. Baron, Robert A., 1998. "Cognitive mechanisms in entrepreneurship: why and when enterpreneurs think differently than other people," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 275-294, July.
    46. Toft-Kehler, Rasmus & Wennberg, Karl & Kim, Phillip H., 2014. "Practice makes perfect: Entrepreneurial-experience curves and venture performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 453-470.
    47. Whyte, Glen, 1993. "Escalating Commitment in Individual and Group Decision Making: A Prospect Theory Approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 430-455, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coad, Alex & Frankish, Julian & Roberts, Richard G. & Storey, David J., 2013. "Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 615-632.
    2. Siepel, Josh & Cowling, Marc & Coad, Alex, 2017. "Non-founder human capital and the long-run growth and survival of high-tech ventures," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 34-43.
    3. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2018. "The determinants of growth in the U.S. information and communication technology (ICT) industry: A firm-level analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-271.
    4. Gjerløv-Juel, Pernille & Guenther, Christina, 2019. "Early employment expansion and long-run survival," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 80-102.
    5. Delmar, Frédéric & Wallin, Jonas & Nofal, Ahmed Maged, 2022. "Modeling new-firm growth and survival with panel data using event magnitude regression," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(5).
    6. Erik Lundmark & Alex Coad & Julian S. Frankish & David J. Storey, 2020. "The Liability of Volatility and How it Changes Over Time Among New Ventures," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 44(5), pages 933-963, September.
    7. Erik Lundmark & Anna Krzeminska & Dean A. Shepherd, 2019. "Images of Entrepreneurship: Exploring Root Metaphors and Expanding Upon Them," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 43(1), pages 138-170, January.
    8. Alex Coad & Julian Frankish & Richard G. Roberts & David J. Storey, 2011. "Growth Paths and Survival Chances," SPRU Working Paper Series 195, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Wennberg, Karl & Wiklund, Johan & DeTienne, Dawn R. & Cardon, Melissa S., 2010. "Reconceptualizing entrepreneurial exit: Divergent exit routes and their drivers," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 361-375, July.
    10. Alexander McKelvie & Johan Wiklund, 2010. "Advancing Firm Growth Research: A Focus on Growth Mode Instead of Growth Rate," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 34(2), pages 261-288, March.
    11. Massimo Baù & Philipp Sieger & Kimberly A. Eddleston & Francesco Chirico, 2017. "Fail but Try Again? The Effects of Age, Gender, and Multiple–Owner Experience on Failed Entrepreneurs’ Reentry," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(6), pages 909-941, November.
    12. Alex Coad & Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Daniel Halvarsson, 2018. "Bursting into life: firm growth and growth persistence by age," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 55-75, January.
    13. Alex Coad & Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Daniel Halvarsson, 2022. "Amundsen versus Scott: are growth paths related to firm performance?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 593-610, August.
    14. Stephen X. Zhang & Javier Cueto, 2017. "The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(3), pages 419-454, May.
    15. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kuhn, Johan M., 2020. "The value of publicly available, textual and non-textual information for startup performance prediction," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    16. Casas Tomas & Hilb Michael, 2016. "Founders in the Living-Dead Trap: A Theoretical Exploration at Entrepreneurship’s Dark Core," Entrepreneurship Research Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 401-423, October.
    17. Delmar, Frédéric & McKelvie, Alexander & Wennberg, Karl, 2013. "Untangling the relationships among growth, profitability and survival in new firms," Ratio Working Papers 205, The Ratio Institute.
    18. Oliver Thomas, 2018. "Two decades of cognitive bias research in entrepreneurship: What do we know and where do we go from here?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 107-143, April.
    19. Alex Coad, 2018. "Firm age: a survey," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 13-43, January.
    20. Parker, Simon C., 2013. "Do serial entrepreneurs run successively better-performing businesses?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 652-666.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Survival; Aspiration levels; Focus of attention; New ventures; Risk preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbvent:v:31:y:2016:i:4:p:408-427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusvent .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.