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Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US

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  • Aggarwal, Raj
  • Mohanty, Sunil
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  • Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:12:y:2000:i:1:p:21-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    2. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. "Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-1764, December.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Yutaka Soejima, 1995. "A Unit Root Test with Structural Change for Japanese Macroeconomic Variables," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 13(1), pages 53-68, July.
    5. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mish83-1.
    7. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
    8. Liu, Peter C & Maddala, G S, 1992. "Using Survey Data to Test Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 303-314.
    9. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    10. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "Introduction to "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models"," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kang, Jun-Koo & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. "How Different Is Japanese Corporate Finance? An Investigation of the Information Content of New Security Issues," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 109-139.
    14. Wakita, Shigeru, 1989. "Are survey forecasts trusted? : American trade account deficit and yen/dollar rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 339-344.
    15. repec:cdl:ucsbec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    17. Cavaglia Stefano & Verschoor Willem F. C. & Wolff Christian C. P., 1993. "Asian Exchange Rate Expectations," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 57-77, March.
    18. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 708-720, September.
    19. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May.
    20. Engle, R.F. & Yoo, B.S., 1989. "Cointegrated Economic Time Series: A Survey With New Results," Papers 8-89-13, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    21. Barclay, Michael J & Litzenberger, Robert H & Warner, Jerold B, 1990. "Private Information, Trading Volume, and Stock-Return Variances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 233-253.
    22. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    23. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-255, August.
    24. Prowse, Stephen D, 1992. "The Structure of Corporate Ownership in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1121-1140, July.
    25. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick M. Crowley & Tony Schildt, 2012. "An Analysis of the Embedded Frequency Content of Macroeconomic Indicators and their Counterparts using the Hilbert-Huang Transform," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-31.
    2. komaki, Yasuyuki, 2023. "Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
    4. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 318, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_033 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Georg Stadtmann & Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Ruelke, 2011. "Scattered Fiscal Forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2558-2568.
    7. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2002. "Accuracy and rationality of Japanese institutional forecasters," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 203-213, April.
    8. Patrick M. Crowley & Tony Schildt, 2012. "An Analysis of the Embedded Frequency Content of Macroeconomic Indicators and their Counterparts using the Hilbert-Huang Transform," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-31.
    9. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Puah, Chin-Hong & Md Isa, Abu Hassan, 2012. "Theory of rational expectations hypothesis: banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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