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Does a “comeback” create momentum in overtime? Analysis of NBA tied games

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  • Morgulev, Elia
  • Azar, Ofer H.
  • Bar-Eli, Michael
Abstract
Despite the prevalence of the momentum concept, the literature is still divided on whether psychological momentum actually exists. We aimed to detect psychological momentum in the specific setting of overtime in basketball games. We collected data from 11 NBA seasons and identified all games that were tied after the end of regulation time. Comeback during basketball games is perceived to be a catalyst for momentum. In contradiction to such common beliefs, we found that teams that came from behind to tie the game did not have higher chances to win in overtime. Interestingly, however, home advantage and the number of season wins of the teams did affect the chances to win in the 5-minute overtime.

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  • Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2019. "Does a “comeback” create momentum in overtime? Analysis of NBA tied games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:75:y:2019:i:pb:s0167487017307122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2018.11.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Galily, Yair & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2020. "The role of initial success in competition: An analysis of early lead effects in NBA overtimes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
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    6. Lauber, Arne & March, Christoph & Sahm, Marco, 2023. "Optimal and fair prizing in sequential round-robin tournaments: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 30-51.
    7. Lackner, Mario & Weichselbaumer, Michael, 2023. "Can barely winning lead to losing? Gender and past performance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 258-274.
    8. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2023. "Gambling on Momentum in Contests," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Success breeds success; Momentum; Sports; Basketball; Performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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