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Prudent monetary policy and prediction of the output gap

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  • van der Ploeg, Frederick
Abstract
Risk-adjusted LQG optimal control with perfect and imperfect observation of the economy is used to obtain prudent Taylor rules for monetary policies and cautious Kalman filters. A prudent central bank adjusts the nominal interest rate more aggressively to changes in the inflation gap, especially if the volatility of cost-push shocks is large. If the interest rate impacts the output gap after a lag, the interest also responds to the output gap, especially with strong persistence in aggregate demand. Prudence pushes up this reaction coefficient as well. If data are poor and appear with a lag, a prudent central bank responds less strongly to new measurements of the output gap. However, prudence attenuates this policy reaction and biases the prediction of the output gap upwards, particularly if output targeting is important. Finally, prudence requires an extra upward (downward) bias in its estimate of the output gap before it feeds into the policy rule if inflation is above (below) target. This reinforces nominal interest rate reactions. A general lesson is that prudent predictions are neither efficient nor unbiased.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2009. "Prudent monetary policy and prediction of the output gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 217-230, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:217-230
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    2. Paolo Vitale Author-Name-First Paolo, 2013. "Pessimistic optimal choice for risk-averse agents," Working Papers CASMEF 1306, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    3. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
    4. Vitale, Paolo, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy for a pessimistic central bank," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 39-59.
    5. Paolo Vitale, 2017. "Pessimistic Optimal Choice for Risk-Averse Agents: The Continuous-Time Limit," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 17-65, January.
    6. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Aggressive oil extraction and precautionary saving: Coping with volatility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(5-6), pages 421-433, June.

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