[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ijocip/v25y2019icp62-83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A framework for modeling and assessing system resilience using a Bayesian network: A case study of an interdependent electrical infrastructure system

Author

Listed:
  • Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne
  • Jaradat, Raed
  • Hosseini, Seyedmohsen
  • Marufuzzaman, Mohammad
  • Buchanan, Randy K.
Abstract
This research utilizes Bayesian network to address a range of possible risks to the electrical power system and its interdependent networks (EIN) and offers possible options to mitigate the consequences of a disruption. The interdependent electrical infrastructure system in Washington, D.C. is used as a case study to quantify the resilience using the Bayesian network. Quantification of resilience is further analyzed based on different types of analysis such as forward propagation, backward propagation, sensitivity analysis, and information theory. The general insight drawn from these analyses indicate that reliability, backup power source, and resource restoration are the prime factors contributed towards enhancing the resilience of an interdependent electrical infrastructure system.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Jaradat, Raed & Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Buchanan, Randy K., 2019. "A framework for modeling and assessing system resilience using a Bayesian network: A case study of an interdependent electrical infrastructure system," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 62-83.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:25:y:2019:i:c:p:62-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2019.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1874548218301392
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijcip.2019.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vlacheas, Panagiotis & Stavroulaki, Vera & Demestichas, Panagiotis & Cadzow, Scott & Ikonomou, Demosthenes & Gorniak, Slawomir, 2013. "Towards end-to-end network resilience," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 159-178.
    2. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    3. Khaled, Abdullah A. & Jin, Mingzhou & Clarke, David B. & Hoque, Mohammad A., 2015. "Train design and routing optimization for evaluating criticality of freight railroad infrastructures," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 71-84.
    4. Eric D. Vugrin & Mark A. Turnquist & Nathanael J.K. Brown, 2014. "Optimal recovery sequencing for enhanced resilience and service restoration in transportation networks," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3/4), pages 218-246.
    5. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "On the Definition of Resilience in Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 498-501, April.
    6. Brown, Charlotte & Seville, Erica & Vargo, John, 2017. "Measuring the organizational resilience of critical infrastructure providers: A New Zealand case study," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 37-49.
    7. Labaka, Leire & Hernantes, Josune & Sarriegi, Jose M., 2015. "Resilience framework for critical infrastructures: An empirical study in a nuclear plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 92-105.
    8. Baroud, Hiba & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E. & Rocco S., Claudio M., 2014. "Importance measures for inland waterway network resilience," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 55-67.
    9. B. Berche & C. von Ferber & T. Holovatch & Yu. Holovatch, 2009. "Resilience of public transport networks against attacks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(1), pages 125-137, September.
    10. Khan, Bushra & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & Yang, Ming, 2018. "An operational risk analysis tool to analyze marine transportation in Arctic waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 485-502.
    11. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash, 2016. "A Bayesian network model for resilience-based supplier selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 68-87.
    12. Chang, Da-Yong, 1996. "Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 649-655, December.
    13. Henry, Devanandham & Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose, 2012. "Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 114-122.
    14. Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel & Rocco, Claudio M., 2013. "Resilience-based network component importance measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 89-97.
    15. Stefano De Porcellinis & Stefano Panzieri & Roberto Setola, 2009. "Modelling critical infrastructure via a mixed holistic reductionistic approach," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 86-99.
    16. S. De Porcellinis & R. Setola & S. Panzieri & G. Ulivi, 2008. "Simulation of heterogeneous and interdependent critical infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 110-128.
    17. Danijela Tadić & Aleksandar Aleksić & Miladin Stefanović & Slavko Arsovski, 2014. "Evaluation and Ranking of Organizational Resilience Factors by Using a Two-Step Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-13, February.
    18. Landegren, Finn & Höst, Martin & Möller, Peter, 2018. "Simulation based assessment of resilience of two large-scale socio-technical IT networks," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 112-125.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Poulin, Craig & Kane, Michael B., 2021. "Infrastructure resilience curves: Performance measures and summary metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Gonçalves, L.A.P.J. & Ribeiro, P.J.G., 2020. "Resilience of urban transportation systems. Concept, characteristics, and methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    4. Adel Mottahedi & Farhang Sereshki & Mohammad Ataei & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi, 2021. "The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    5. Zhu, Chunli & Wu, Jianping & Liu, Mingyu & Luan, Jianlin & Li, Tingting & Hu, Kezhen, 2020. "Cyber-physical resilience modelling and assessment of urban roadway system interrupted by rainfall," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Almoghathawi, Yasser & Barker, Kash & Albert, Laura A., 2019. "Resilience-driven restoration model for interdependent infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 12-23.
    7. Xu, Zhaoping & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel & Liu, Yu & Xiahou, Tangfan, 2020. "A new resilience-based component importance measure for multi-state networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Cheng, Yao & Elsayed, E.A. & Chen, Xi, 2021. "Random Multi Hazard Resilience Modeling of Engineered Systems and Critical Infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Nur, Farjana & Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Puryear, Stephen M., 2019. "A Bayesian network based approach for modeling and assessing resilience: A case study of a full service deep water port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 378-396.
    10. Yin, Jiateng & Ren, Xianliang & Liu, Ronghui & Tang, Tao & Su, Shuai, 2022. "Quantitative analysis for resilience-based urban rail systems: A hybrid knowledge-based and data-driven approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    11. Trucco, Paolo & Petrenj, Boris, 2023. "Characterisation of resilience metrics in full-scale applications to interdependent infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    12. Milan Janić, 2018. "Modelling the resilience of rail passenger transport networks affected by large-scale disruptive events: the case of HSR (high speed rail)," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1101-1137, July.
    13. HOSSAIN, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Amrani, Safae El & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Buchanan, Randy & Rinaudo, Christina & Hamilton, Michael, 2020. "Modeling and assessing interdependencies between critical infrastructures using Bayesian network: A case study of inland waterway port and surrounding supply chain network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    14. Zhang, Chao & Xu, Xin & Dui, Hongyan, 2020. "Resilience Measure of Network Systems by Node and Edge Indicators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Xiaolong Xue & Liang Wang & Rebecca J. Yang, 2018. "Exploring the science of resilience: critical review and bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 477-510, January.
    16. Mottahedi, Adel & Sereshki, Farhang & Ataei, Mohammad & Qarahasanlou, Ali Nouri & Barabadi, Abbas, 2021. "Resilience estimation of critical infrastructure systems: Application of expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    17. Baroud, Hiba & Barker, Kash, 2018. "A Bayesian kernel approach to modeling resilience-based network component importance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 10-19.
    18. Das, Laya & Munikoti, Sai & Natarajan, Balasubramaniam & Srinivasan, Babji, 2020. "Measuring smart grid resilience: Methods, challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. Kuttler, Emma & Ghorbani-Renani, Nafiseh & Barker, Kash & González, Andrés D. & Johansson, Jonas, 2024. "Protection-interdiction-restoration for resilient multi-commodity networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    20. Zou, Qiling & Chen, Suren, 2021. "Resilience-based Recovery Scheduling of Transportation Network in Mixed Traffic Environment: A Deep-Ensemble-Assisted Active Learning Approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:25:y:2019:i:c:p:62-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/international-journal-of-critical-infrastructure-protection .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.