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Sovereign debt maturity structure under asymmetric information

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  • Perez, Diego J.
Abstract
This paper studies the optimal choice of sovereign debt maturity when investors are unaware of the government's willingness to repay. Under a pooling equilibrium there is a wedge between the borrower's true default risk and the default risk priced in debt, and its size differs with the maturity of debt. Safe borrowers tilt their debt maturity towards short-term – relative to the optimal choice under perfect information – since long-term debt pools more default risk that is not inherent to them. Risky borrowers mimic their behavior of safe borrowers to preclude the market from identifying their type. In times of financial distress, spreads increase and the default risk wedge of long-term debt relative to short-term debt increases, which makes borrowers shorten their debt maturity. Data on bond issuances for a panel of countries show that, consistent with the model, maturities co-vary negatively with spreads and that this co-movement is stronger in those situations in which informational asymmetries are larger.

Suggested Citation

  • Perez, Diego J., 2017. "Sovereign debt maturity structure under asymmetric information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 243-259.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:243-259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.05.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergii Kiiashko, 2019. "Optimal Time Consistent Government Debt Maturity, Fiscal Policy, and Default," Working Papers 04/2019, National Bank of Ukraine.
    2. Grace Weishi Gu & Zachary R. Stangebye, 2023. "Costly Information And Sovereign Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1397-1429, November.
    3. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Manuel Amador & Christopher Phelan, 2021. "Reputation and Sovereign Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1979-2010, July.
    5. Dallal Bendjellal, 2022. "Sovereign Risk, Financial Fragility and Debt Maturity," Working Papers hal-03792522, HAL.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Purnama, Muhammad Yusuf Indra & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2024. "Digitalization and firms' debt maturity: Do financial constraints and uncertainty matter?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Joo, Hyungseok & Lee, Yoon-Jin & Yoon, Young-Ro, 2023. "Effects of information quality on signaling through sovereign debt issuance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 279-304.
    8. Mihm, Benedikt, 2018. "Biased signaling and yardstick comparisons in a sovereign debt market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 36-46.
    9. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Sovereign Debt Disclosure," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1094, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kursat Onder & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt Disclosure," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-004 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    12. Dallal Bendjellal, 2022. "Sovereign Risk, Financial Fragility and Debt Maturity," AMSE Working Papers 2222, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    13. Marcos González-Fernández & Carmen González-Velasco, 2018. "Bond Yields, Sovereign Risk and Maturity Structure," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-25, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Maturity structure; Asymmetric information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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