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Bagging weak predictors

Author

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  • Hillebrand, Eric
  • Lukas, Manuel
  • Wei, Wei
Abstract
Often, relations between economic variables cannot be exploited for forecasting, suggesting that predictors are weak in the sense that the estimation uncertainty is larger than the bias from ignoring the relation. In this paper, we propose a novel bagging estimator designed for such predictors. Based on a test for finite-sample predictive ability, our estimator shrinks the ordinary least squares estimate—not to zero, but towards the null of the test that equates squared bias with estimation variance. We apply bagging to reduce the estimation variance further. We derive the asymptotic distribution and show that our estimator substantially lowers the mean-squared error compared to standard t-test bagging. An asymptotic shrinkage representation for the estimator that simplifies the computation is provided. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the predictor works well with small samples. Empirically, we found that our proposed estimator worked well for inflation forecasting when using unemployment or industrial production as predictors. In an application for predicting equity premiums, the combination of our estimator and a positive constraint on forecasts delivered statistically significant gains relative to the historical average using a wide range of predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillebrand, Eric & Lukas, Manuel & Wei, Wei, 2021. "Bagging weak predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 237-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:1:p:237-254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.05.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "To Bag is to Prune," Working Papers 21-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Jun 2021.
    4. Luo, Qin & Bu, Jinfeng & Xu, Weiju & Huang, Dengshi, 2023. "Stock market volatility prediction: Evidence from a new bagging model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 445-456.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation forecasting; Equity premium predictions; Bootstrap aggregation; Estimation uncertainty; Weak predictors; Shrinkage methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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