[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v31y2015i2p399-425.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world

Author

Listed:
  • Lleo, Sébastien
  • Ziemba, William T.
Abstract
We provide a historical background on Ziemba’s experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD), from the time he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. Over this period, the model has called many crashes, but not all. Those called have had high interest rates in long term bonds relative to the trailing earnings to price ratio. In general, there will almost always be a crash if the model is in the danger zone. The model predicted the crashes in China, Iceland and the US in the 2006–09 period. Iceland had a drop of fully 95%. For the US, the call was on June 14, 2007, and the stock market fell 56.8%. A longer-term study for the US, Canada, Japan, Germany, and the UK shows that, over long periods, being in the stock market when the bond-stock signal is not in the danger zone, and in cash when it is in the danger zone, provides a final wealth which is about double that of a buy and hold strategy for each of these five countries. The best use of the model is for predicting crashes. Finally, we compare Shiller’s high PE ratio crash model to the BSEYD model for the US market from 1962–2012. While both models add value, the BSEYD model predicts crashes better.

Suggested Citation

  • Lleo, Sébastien & Ziemba, William T., 2015. "Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-425.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:399-425
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207015000084
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paulo Maio, 2013. "The "Fed Model" and the Predictability of Stock Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1489-1533.
    2. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, "undated". "The Role of diversification risk in financial bubbles," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    4. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
    5. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 market descent: How much longer and deeper?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 468-481.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    8. J. G. Kallberg & W. T. Ziemba, 1983. "Comparison of Alternative Utility Functions in Portfolio Selection Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(11), pages 1257-1276, November.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    12. Sébastien Lleo & William T. Ziemba, 2013. "Stock Market Crashes In 2007–2009: Were We Able To Predict Them?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 13, pages 457-499, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Delong J. Bradford, 2008. "Stocks for the Long Run," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 5(7), pages 1-2, November.
    15. Douglas Stone & William T. Ziemba, 1993. "Land and Stock Prices in Japan," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 149-165, Summer.
    16. Wanfeng Yan & Reda Rebib & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, "undated". "Detection of Crashes and Rebounds in Major Equity Markets," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Does the bond-stock earning yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Koivu, Matti & Pennanen, Teemu & Ziemba, William T., 2005. "Cointegration analysis of the Fed model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 248-259, December.
    20. A. N. Shiryaev & M. V. Zhitlukhin & W. T. Ziemba, 2015. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1449-1469, September.
    21. Estrada, Javier, 2006. "The Fed model: A note," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 14-22, March.
    22. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    23. Sebastien Lleo & William T. Ziemba, 2015. "How to Lose Money in Derivatives: Examples from Hedge Funds and Bank Trading Departments," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 22, pages 689-750, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Ritter, Jay R. & Warr, Richard S., 2002. "The Decline of Inflation and the Bull Market of 1982–1999," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 29-61, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Lleo & William T. Ziemba, 2013. "Stock Market Crashes In 2007–2009: Were We Able To Predict Them?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 13, pages 457-499, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William, 2017. "A tale of two indexes: predicting equity market downturns in China," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85131, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Does the bond-stock earning yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Zakamulin, Valeriy & Hunnes, John A., 2021. "Stock earnings and bond yields in the US 1871–2017: The story of a changing relationship," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 182-197.
    5. Shiryaev, Albert N. & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail N. & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molina-Muñoz, Jesús & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Market-crash forecasting based on the dynamics of the alpha-stable distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    2. Shiryaev, Albert N. & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail N. & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    4. Tyler Muir, 2017. "Financial Crises and Risk Premia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 765-809.
    5. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    6. Tortorice, Daniel L., 2018. "Equity return predictability, time varying volatility and learning about the permanence of shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 315-343.
    7. Zakamulin, Valeriy & Hunnes, John A., 2021. "Stock earnings and bond yields in the US 1871–2017: The story of a changing relationship," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 182-197.
    8. Sébastien Lleo & William T. Ziemba, 2017. "Does the bond‐stock earnings yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 61-123, May.
    9. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    11. Christoph Trebesch, 2019. "Resolving sovereign debt crises: the role of political risk," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 421-444.
    12. Röhrs, Sigrid & Winter, Christoph, 2017. "Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-20.
    13. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    14. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Jonathon Adams‐Kane & Julián A. Caballero & Jamus Jerome Lim, 2017. "Foreign Bank Behavior during Financial Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 351-392, March.
    16. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves, 2015. "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 9-26, December.
    17. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    20. Agustín Goenaga & Oriol Sabaté & Jan Teorell, 2023. "The state does not live by warfare alone: War and revenue in the long nineteenth century," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 393-418, April.
    21. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "International Reserves Management in a Model of Partial Sovereign Default," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_14, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market crashes; BSEYD and Fed models; Long term investing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:399-425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.