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Prediction in a spatial nested error components panel data model

Author

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  • Baltagi, Badi H.
  • Pirotte, Alain
Abstract
This paper derives the Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (BLUP) for a spatial nested error components panel data model. This predictor is useful for panel data applications that exhibit spatial dependence and a nested (hierarchical) structure. The predictor allows for unbalancedness in the number of observations in the nested groups. One application includes forecasting average housing prices located in a county nested in a state. When deriving the BLUP, we take into account the spatial correlation across counties, as well as the unbalancedness due to observing different numbers of counties nested in each state. Ignoring the nested spatial structure leads to inefficiency and inferior forecasts. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that our feasible predictor is better in root mean square error performance than the usual fixed and random effects panel predictors which ignore the spatial nested structure of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Baltagi, Badi H. & Pirotte, Alain, 2014. "Prediction in a spatial nested error components panel data model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 407-414.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:3:p:407-414
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.11.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-533, May.
    2. Badi H. Baltagi & Bernard Fingleton & Alain Pirotte, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 112-138, February.
    3. Seuck Song & Byoung Jung, 2002. "BLUP in the panel regression model with spatially and serially correlated error components," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 551-566, October.
    4. H. Baltagi, Badi & Heun Song, Seuck & Cheol Jung, Byoung, 2001. "The unbalanced nested error component regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 357-381, April.
    5. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
    6. Manfred M. Fischer & Arthur Getis (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-03647-7, December.
    7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Pirotte, Alain, 2010. "Panel data inference under spatial dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1368-1381, November.
    8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2012. "Forecasting with spatial panel data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3381-3397.
    9. Nerlove, Marc, 1971. "Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross Sections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 359-382, March.
    10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Chang, Young-Jae, 1994. "Incomplete panels : A comparative study of alternative estimators for the unbalanced one-way error component regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 67-89, June.
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    13. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    14. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2004. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Sergio J. Rey (ed.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, chapter 13, pages 283-295, Springer.
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    16. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 995-1024, Elsevier.
    17. Badi H. Baltagi & Alain Pirotte, 2013. "Prediction in an Unbalanced Nested Error Components Panel Data Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 755-768, December.
    18. J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 244-268, July.
    19. Eric Girardin & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 622-643, November.
    20. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2007. "Forecasting Regional Labor Market Developments under Spatial Autocorrelation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 30(2), pages 100-119, April.
    21. Antweiler, Werner, 2001. "Nested random effects estimation in unbalanced panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 295-313, April.
    22. Taub, Allan J., 1979. "Prediction in the context of the variance-components model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 103-107, April.
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