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High short interest effect and aggregate volatility risk

Author

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  • Barinov, Alexander
  • Wu, Juan (Julie)
Abstract
We propose a risk-based firm-type explanation on why stocks of firms with high relative short interest (RSI) have lower future returns. We argue that these firms have negative alphas because they are a hedge against expected aggregate volatility risk. Consistent with this argument, we show that these firms have high firm-specific uncertainty and option-like equity, and the aggregate volatility risk factor can largely explain the high RSI effect. The key mechanism is that high RSI firms have abundant growth options and, all else equal, growth options become less sensitive to the underlying asset value and more valuable as idiosyncratic volatility goes up. Idiosyncratic volatility usually increases with aggregate volatility (i.e., in recessions).

Suggested Citation

  • Barinov, Alexander & Wu, Juan (Julie), 2014. "High short interest effect and aggregate volatility risk," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 98-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:21:y:2014:i:c:p:98-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2014.10.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bhattacharya, Mita & Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Valenzuela, Maria Rebecca, 2020. "Credit risk and financial integration: An application of network analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate volatility risk; Short interest; Uncertainty; Mispricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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