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Estimating beta: Forecast adjustments and the impact of stock characteristics for a broad cross-section

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  • Hollstein, Fabian
  • Prokopczuk, Marcel
  • Wese Simen, Chardin
Abstract
Researchers and practitioners face many choices when estimating an asset's sensitivities toward risk factors, i.e., betas. Using the entire U.S. stock universe and a sample period of more than 50 years, we find that a historical estimator based on daily return data with an exponential weighting scheme as well as simple shrinkage adjustments yield the best predictions for future beta. Adjustments for asynchronous trading, macroeconomic conditions, or regression-based combinations, on the other hand, typically yield very high prediction errors and fail to create market-neutral anomaly portfolios. Finally, we document a robust link between stock characteristics and beta predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "Estimating beta: Forecast adjustments and the impact of stock characteristics for a broad cross-section," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 91-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:44:y:2019:i:c:p:91-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2019.03.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "Testing Factor Models in the Cross-Section," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Tolga Cenesizoglu & Denada Ibrushi, 2020. "Predicting Systematic Risk With Macroeconomic And Financial Variables," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 649-673, August.
    4. Yasser Alhenawi & M. Kabir Hassan, 2023. "How do investors price accrual risk during crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4684-4706, October.
    5. Dmitry Bazhutov & André Betzer & Richard Stehle, 2023. "Beta estimation in the European network regulation context: what matters, what doesn’t, and what is indispensable," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(3), pages 239-275, September.
    6. Hollstein, Fabian, 2020. "Estimating beta: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Liu, Jinjing, 2023. "A novel downside beta and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Beta estimation in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Doan, Bao & Lee, John B. & Liu, Qianqiu & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2022. "Beta measurement with high frequency returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    10. Dierkes, Maik & Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Würsig, Christoph Matthias, 2024. "Measuring tail risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    11. Madhusmita Bhadra & Doyeon Kim, 2023. "Income elasticity of demand and stock market beta," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 225-240, August.
    12. Hamzeh F. Assous & Nadia Al-Rousan & Dania AL-Najjar & Hazem AL-Najjar, 2020. "Can International Market Indices Estimate TASI’s Movements? The ARIMA Model," JOItmC, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, April.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2022. "Realized semibetas: Disentangling “good” and “bad” downside risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 227-246.
    14. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Christoph Matthias Würsig, 2024. "Market power and systematic risk," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 233-266, June.
    15. Chincarini, Ludwig B. & Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2020. "Beta and firm age," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 50-74.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beta estimation; Forecast combinations; Forecast adjustments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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