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The effect of natural disasters on housing prices: An examination of the Fourmile Canyon fire

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  • Kiel, Katherine A.
  • Matheson, Victor A.
Abstract
In September 2010, the Fourmile-Lefthand Canyon forest fire burned 6181 acres, destroyed 169 homes, and caused $217 million in property damages making it by far the most expensive fire in Colorado history at the time. This paper examines how the fire affected housing prices in vulnerable neighboring areas that were not directly impacted by the fire, controlling for the property’s level of risk. This damaging fire may have increased home owners’ perceptions about the risk of living in forested areas subject to wildfires to a significant degree adding to the total direct economic losses from the fire. Utilizing a unique fire risk data set and a difference-in-difference approach, we test whether buyers of houses in areas with different risk levels prior to the fire adjust expectations differently. We find buyers in the highest risk area are most likely to change their perceptions in response to a fire with houses in these areas experiencing a statistically significant 21.7% decline in sale price compared to houses in non-risky areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiel, Katherine A. & Matheson, Victor A., 2018. "The effect of natural disasters on housing prices: An examination of the Fourmile Canyon fire," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:33:y:2018:i:c:p:1-7
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2018.09.002
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    1. Loomis, John, 2004. "Do nearby forest fires cause a reduction in residential property values?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 149-157, November.
    2. Geoffrey H. Donovan & Patricia A. Champ & David T. Butry, 2007. "Wildfire Risk and Housing Prices: A Case Study from Colorado Springs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 217-233.
    3. Xu, Zhen & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2013. "Living with Wildfire: The Impact of Historic Fires on Property Values in Kelowna, BC," Working Papers 157316, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    4. James Chivers & Nicholas E. Flores, 2002. "Market Failure in Information: The National Flood Insurance Program," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(4), pages 515-521.
    5. Boyle, Melissa A. & Lahey, Joanna N., 2010. "Health insurance and the labor supply decisions of older workers: Evidence from a U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs expansion," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(7-8), pages 467-478, August.
    6. Ajita Atreya & Susana Ferreira & Warren Kriesel, 2013. "Forgetting the Flood? An Analysis of the Flood Risk Discount over Time," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 577-596.
    7. Stetler, Kyle M. & Venn, Tyron J. & Calkin, David E., 2010. "The effects of wildfire and environmental amenities on property values in northwest Montana, USA," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2233-2243, September.
    8. Julie Mueller & John Loomis & Armando González-Cabán, 2009. "Do Repeated Wildfires Change Homebuyers’ Demand for Homes in High-Risk Areas? A Hedonic Analysis of the Short and Long-Term Effects of Repeated Wildfires on House Prices in Southern California," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 155-172, February.
    9. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
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    Cited by:

    1. Hazra, Devika & Gallagher, Patricia, 2022. "Role of insurance in wildfire risk mitigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Michael Holscher & David Ignell & Morgan Lewis & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2022. "Climate Change and the Role of Regulatory Capital: A Stylized Framework for Policy Assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Mitchell R. Livy, 2020. "Extreme natural events are associated with significant economic losses and expected to increase in frequency and intensity with time. While previous research has primarily investigated singular event ," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 665-678.
    4. Choi, Anna & Kim, Pureum & Park, Abraham, 2023. "The effects of air quality on housing prices: Evidence from the Aliso Canyon gas leak," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Paradiso, A. & Ghisletti, M., 2020. "Tornado activity, house prices, and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Ti-Ching Peng, 2021. "The effect of hazard shock and disclosure information on property and land prices: a machine-learning assessment in the case of Japan," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 41(1), pages 1-32, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disasters; Forest fires; Housing; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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