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The economic impact of social distancing: Evidence from state-collected data during the 1918 influenza pandemic

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  • Bridgman, Benjamin
  • Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan
Abstract
What are the long-run economic impacts of the policy responses to control pandemics? We investigate this question by exploiting state-collected data spanning one of the most consequential global pandemics in centuries, the 1918 influenza pandemic. Specifically, we use a difference-in-differences framework to examine the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), ultimately finding no long-run impact of NPIs on employment, positive or negative. Employment trends prior to 1918 suggest that World War One is an important confounding factor in analyses of the pandemic, since cities with tighter NPIs grew rapidly between 1914 and 1918. We identify new control variables that account for war production and find that social distancing did not have long run employment impacts. The evidence underscores the importance of accounting for confounding economic and policy factors for understanding the impact of pandemics on economic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bridgman, Benjamin & Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2023. "The economic impact of social distancing: Evidence from state-collected data during the 1918 influenza pandemic," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s0014498323000256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101531
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    1. Hou, Wenxuan & Li, Mao & Main, Brian G.M. & Liu, Xiaofan, 2023. "Pandemics and financial development: A lesson from the 1918 influenza pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; 1918 influenza; Non-pharmaceutical; Interventions; Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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