[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v315y2024i1p120-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk pooling under demand and price uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Güllü, Refik
  • Erkip, Nesim
Abstract
This paper studies purchasing a commodity or a perishable item under stochastically evolving and correlated prices for a distribution system environment. We consider the central purchasing of the commodity under the demand process correlated with the random price and decide on the timing and quantity of allocation to demand locations. As an implementation of the physical pooling concept, we investigate the benefits of pooling price and demand risk when the forward purchase is realized for all demand locations. We also study the benefits of informational pooling concepts by deciding on the allocation timing. Even when the demand locations are independent entities, organizing joint purchasing of a commodity may take advantage of economies of scale with a more reliable and less expensive delivery option. We develop a model to guide the purchasing and allocation of quantities and employ multi-echelon inventory theory methods and stochastic processes commonly used in financial engineering and operations management literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Güllü, Refik & Erkip, Nesim, 2024. "Risk pooling under demand and price uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(1), pages 120-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:315:y:2024:i:1:p:120-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2023.11.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037722172300869X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2023.11.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
    2. Guang Xiao & Nan Yang & Renyu Zhang, 2015. "Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Management Under Fluctuating Procurement Costs," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 321-334, July.
    3. X. Guo & P. Kaminsky & P. Tomecek & M. Yuen, 2011. "Optimal spot market inventory strategies in the presence of cost and price risk," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 73(1), pages 109-137, February.
    4. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    5. Xing, Wei & Wang, Shouyang & Liu, Liming, 2012. "Optimal ordering and pricing strategies in the presence of a B2B spot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 87-98.
    6. de Kok, Ton & Grob, Christopher & Laumanns, Marco & Minner, Stefan & Rambau, Jörg & Schade, Konrad, 2018. "A typology and literature review on stochastic multi-echelon inventory models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 955-983.
    7. Chaolin Yang & Zhenyu Hu & Sean X. Zhou, 2021. "Multilocation Newsvendor Problem: Centralization and Inventory Pooling," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 185-200, January.
    8. Nesim Erkip & Warren H. Hausman & Steven Nahmias, 1990. "Optimal Centralized Ordering Policies in Multi-Echelon Inventory Systems with Correlated Demands," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 381-392, March.
    9. Jason Acimovic & Stephen C. Graves, 2015. "Making Better Fulfillment Decisions on the Fly in an Online Retail Environment," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 34-51, February.
    10. Andrew J. Clark & Herbert Scarf, 2004. "Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1782-1790, December.
    11. Ho-Yin Mak & Zuo-Jun Max Shen, 2014. "Pooling and Dependence of Demand and Yield in Multiple-Location Inventory Systems," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 263-269, May.
    12. Awi Federgruen & Paul Zipkin, 1984. "Approximations of Dynamic, Multilocation Production and Inventory Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 69-84, January.
    13. Peter Berling & Kaj Rosling, 2005. "The Effects of Financial Risks on Inventory Policy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1804-1815, December.
    14. Dacheng Yao, 2017. "Joint pricing and inventory control for a stochastic inventory system with Brownian motion demand," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1101-1111, December.
    15. Inderfurth, Karl & Kelle, Peter & Kleber, Rainer, 2013. "Dual sourcing using capacity reservation and spot market: Optimal procurement policy and heuristic parameter determination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 298-309.
    16. Awi Federgruen & Paul Zipkin, 1984. "Allocation policies and cost approximations for multilocation inventory systems," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 97-129, March.
    17. Ç Haksöz & S Seshadri, 2007. "Supply chain operations in the presence of a spot market: a review with discussion," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(11), pages 1412-1429, November.
    18. Ewald, Christian & Zou, Yihan, 2021. "Analytic formulas for futures and options for a linear quadratic jump diffusion model with seasonal stochastic volatility and convenience yield: Do fish jump?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 801-815.
    19. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    20. Li, Li, 2023. "Commodity prices volatility and economic growth: Empirical evidence from natural resources industries of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    21. Karl Inderfurth & Peter Kelle & Rainer Kleber, 2014. "The Effect of Material Price and Product Demand Correlations on Combined Sourcing and Inventory Management," FEMM Working Papers 140013, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    22. Felix Papier, 2016. "Supply Allocation Under Sequential Advance Demand Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 341-361, April.
    23. Refik Güllü & Geert-Jan van Houtum & F. Zeynep Sargut & Nesim Erkip, 2005. "Analysis of a Decentralized Supply Chain Under Partial Cooperation," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 229-247, March.
    24. Lim, Siew Hoon & Hong, Yongtao, 2014. "Fuel hedging and airline operating costs," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-40.
    25. Qi Fu & Chung-Yee Lee & Chung-Piaw Teo, 2010. "Procurement management using option contracts: random spot price and the portfolio effect," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 793-811.
    26. Kamal Golabi, 1985. "Optimal Inventory Policies When Ordering Prices are Random," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 575-588, June.
    27. Benjamin Handel & Jonathan Kolstad, 2022. "The Affordable Care Act After a Decade: Industrial Organization of the Insurance Exchanges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 287-312, August.
    28. Protopappa-Sieke, Margarita & Sieke, Marcel A. & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Optimal two-period inventory allocation under multiple service level contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 145-155.
    29. Seifert, Ralf W. & Thonemann, Ulrich W. & Hausman, Warren H., 2004. "Optimal procurement strategies for online spot markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 781-799, February.
    30. Dye, Chung-Yuan & Hsieh, Tsu-Pang, 2012. "An optimal replenishment policy for deteriorating items with effective investment in preservation technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 106-112.
    31. Haresh Gurnani & Christopher S. Tang, 1999. "Note: Optimal Ordering Decisions with Uncertain Cost and Demand Forecast Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1456-1462, October.
    32. Yasin Ceran & Harpreet Singh & Vijay Mookerjee, 2016. "Knowing What Your Customer Wants: Improving Inventory Allocation Decisions in Online Movie Rental Systems," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 25(10), pages 1673-1688, October.
    33. Xu, Jinpeng & Feng, Gengzhong & Jiang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2015. "Optimal procurement of long-term contracts in the presence of imperfect spot market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 42-52.
    34. Ankur Goel & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2011. "Multiechelon Procurement and Distribution Policies for Traded Commodities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(12), pages 2228-2244, December.
    35. Liao Wang & David D. Yao, 2017. "Production with Risk Hedging—Optimal Policy and Efficient Frontier," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1095-1113, August.
    36. Hsu, P.H. & Wee, H.M. & Teng, H.M., 2010. "Preservation technology investment for deteriorating inventory," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 388-394, April.
    37. Nicola Secomandi & Sunder Kekre, 2014. "Optimal Energy Procurement in Spot and Forward Markets," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 270-282, May.
    38. Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2014. "Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 825-843.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ankur Goel & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2011. "Multiechelon Procurement and Distribution Policies for Traded Commodities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(12), pages 2228-2244, December.
    2. Karl Inderfurth & Peter Kelle & Rainer Kleber, 2018. "Inventory control in dual sourcing commodity procurement with price correlation," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 93-119, March.
    3. Karl Inderfurth & Peter Kelle & Rainer Kleber, 2014. "The Effect of Material Price and Product Demand Correlations on Combined Sourcing and Inventory Management," FEMM Working Papers 140013, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    4. Niu, Baozhuang & Chu, Lap-Keung & Ni, Jian & Wang, Junwei, 2018. "Buy now and price later: Supply contracts with time-consistent mean–variance financial hedgingAuthor-Name: Li, Qiang," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(2), pages 582-595.
    5. Xiaofeng Nie & Tamer Boyacı & Mehmet Gümüş & Saibal Ray & Dan Zhang, 2017. "Joint procurement and demand-side bidding strategies under price volatility," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 121-165, October.
    6. Jianjun Xu & Mustafa Cagri Gürbüz & Youyi Feng & Shaoxiang Chen, 2020. "Optimal Spot Trading Integrated with Quantity Flexibility Contracts," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(6), pages 1532-1549, June.
    7. Canyakmaz, Caner & Özekici, Süleyman & Karaesmen, Fikri, 2019. "An inventory model where customer demand is dependent on a stochastic price process," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 139-152.
    8. Xing, Wei & Liu, Liming & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "More than a second channel? Supply chain strategies in B2B spot markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(3), pages 699-710.
    9. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
    10. Xu, Jinpeng & Feng, Gengzhong & Jiang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2015. "Optimal procurement of long-term contracts in the presence of imperfect spot market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 42-52.
    11. Hu, Xiangling & Su, Ping, 2018. "The newsvendor's joint procurement and pricing problem under price-sensitive stochastic demand and purchase price uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-90.
    12. Gürel, Yücel & Güllü, Refik, 2019. "Effect of a secondary market on a system with random demand and uncertain costs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 112-120.
    13. Rettinger, Moritz & Mandl, Christian & Minner, Stefan, 2024. "A data-driven approach for optimal operational and financial commodity hedging," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 341-360.
    14. Nicola Secomandi & Guoming Lai & François Margot & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Duane J. Seppi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage and Term-Structure Model Error," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 302-320, July.
    15. Alon Dourban & Liron Yedidsion, 2017. "Optimal Purchasing Policy For Mean-Reverting Items in a Finite Horizon," Papers 1711.03188, arXiv.org.
    16. Kim, Nayeon & Montreuil, Benoit & Klibi, Walid & Zied Babai, M., 2023. "Network inventory deployment for responsive fulfillment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    17. Mahapatra, Santosh & Levental, Shlomo & Narasimhan, Ram, 2017. "Market price uncertainty, risk aversion and procurement: Combining contracts and open market sourcing alternatives," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 34-51.
    18. Canyakmaz, Caner & Özekici, Süleyman & Karaesmen, Fikri, 2022. "A newsvendor problem with markup pricing in the presence of within-period price fluctuations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 153-162.
    19. Nicola Secomandi & Sunder Kekre, 2014. "Optimal Energy Procurement in Spot and Forward Markets," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 270-282, May.
    20. Inderfurth, Karl & Kelle, Peter & Kleber, Rainer, 2013. "Dual sourcing using capacity reservation and spot market: Optimal procurement policy and heuristic parameter determination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 298-309.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:315:y:2024:i:1:p:120-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.