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The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets

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  • Kal, Süleyman Hilmi
  • Arslaner, Ferhat
  • Arslaner, Nuran
Abstract
This paper investigates whether the deviation of a currency from its fundamentally determined rate of return affects the relationship between interest rates and stock market yields. A time-varying transition probability, the Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, is utilized for this purpose. Wald and likelihood ratio tests are computed and used as model adequacy measures. In order to analyze the link between the variables, impulse–response functions are employed. A sticky price exchange rate model is used to show the fundamentally determined rate of return of currencies. States are defined as either overvalued or undervalued, depending on the position of the observed exchange rate compared to its fundamentally determined rate. The model is applied to four major currencies: the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. Transition between the states is linked to the risk-adjusted excess return (the Sharpe ratio) of the debt and equity markets of the respective currencies in order to understand whether over- and undervaluation is connected to the returns in these markets. The results provide evidence that the relationship between economic fundamentals and nominal exchange rates are subject to change depending on the over- or undervaluation of the currencies relative to their fundamentally determined rate of return. An extension of this result shows that the Sharpe ratios of debt and equity investments in the currencies influence the evolution of the transitional dynamics of the exchange rates’ deviation from their fundamental values.

Suggested Citation

  • Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 592-607.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:4:p:592-607
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.03.002
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    Cited by:

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    5. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Modeling the spillovers between stock market and money market in Nigeria," Working Papers 023, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    6. Neharika Sobti, 2018. "Domestic intermarket linkages: measuring dynamic return and volatility connectedness among Indian financial markets," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(4), pages 325-344, December.
    7. Mustafa Akay & Berat Bayram & Abdullah Kazdal & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Investigating Regime-Dependent Dynamics in Country Risk Premium: Evidence from Turkey and Emerging Markets," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2008, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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    9. Arash Habibi & Chin Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Stock Prices in G7 Countries," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 19-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond price; Stock price; Exchange rate; Sharpe ratio; Wald ratio test; Likelihood test; Impulse–response functions; Markov-switching vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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