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Robust Discovery of Regression Models

Author

Listed:
  • Castle, Jennifer L.
  • Doornik, Jurgen A.
  • Hendry, David F.
Abstract
Successful modeling of observational data requires jointly discovering the determinants of the underlying process and the observations from which it can be reliably estimated, given the near impossibility of pre-specifying both. To do so requires avoiding many potential problems, including substantive omitted variables; unmodeled non-stationarity and misspecified dynamics in time series; non-linearity; and inappropriate conditioning assumptions, as well as incorrect distributional shape combined with contaminated observations from outliers and shifts. The aim is to discover robust, parsimonious representations that retain the relevant information, are well specified, encompass alternative models, and evaluate the validity of the study. An approach is proposed that provides robustness in many directions. It is demonstrated how to handle apparent outliers due to alternative distributional assumptions; and discriminate between outliers and large observations arising from non-linear responses. Two empirical applications, utilizing datasets popularized in previous applications, show substantive improvements from the proposed approach to robust model discovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:26:y:2023:i:c:p:31-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.05.004
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    24. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
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    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak & Jarosław Joostberens & Spas D. Kolev, 2024. "Key SDG7 Factors Shaping the Future of Clean Coal Technologies: Analysis of Trends and Prospects in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-15, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autometrics; Lasso; Least-trimmed Squares; Location Shifts; Model Discovery; Non-linearities; Outliers; Robustness; Saturation Estimation; Structural Breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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