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Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements

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  • Gardner, Ben
  • Scotti, Chiara
  • Vega, Clara
Abstract
While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel FOMC sentiment index using textual analysis techniques, and find that news has a bigger (smaller) effect on equity prices during bad (good) times as described by the FOMC sentiment index. Our analysis suggests that the FOMC sentiment index offers a reading on current and future macroeconomic conditions that will affect the probability of a change in interest rates, and the reaction of equity prices to news depends on the FOMC sentiment index which is one of the best predictors of this probability.

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  • Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:231:y:2022:i:2:p:387-409
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.07.014
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    Cited by:

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    3. van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Investor sentiment and multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    4. Baranowski, Pawel & Bennani, Hamza & Doryń, Wirginia, 2023. "Stock price reaction to ECB communication: Introductory Statements vs. Questions & Answers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Leonardo Gambacorta & Salvatore Polizzi & Alessio Reghezza & Enzo Scannella, 2023. "Do banks practice what they preach? Brown lending and environmental disclosure in the euro area," BIS Working Papers 1143, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Christoph E. Boehm & T. Niklas Kroner, 2020. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," Working Papers 677, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    7. Ge Gao & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 183-203, December.
    8. Dimitris Anastasiou & Apostolos Katsafados, 2023. "Bank deposits and textual sentiment: When an European Central Bank president's speech is not just a speech," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(1), pages 55-87, January.
    9. Ilias Filippou & James Mitchell & My T. Nguyen, 2023. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?," Working Papers 23-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Neugebauer, Frederik & Russnak, Jan & Zimmermann, Lilli & Camarero Garcia, Sebastian, 2024. "Effects of the ECB’s communication on government bond spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Philip N. Jefferson, 2024. "Communicating about Monetary Policy: A speech at Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice,” a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio., May 13, 2024," Speech 98225, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna & Radu, Ştefan-Constantin, 2023. "Unveiling the sentiment behind central bank narratives: A novel deep learning index," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    13. Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2022. "The demand and supply of information about inflation," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-27, CIRANO.
    14. Qiu, Yue & Xie, Tian & Xie, Wenjing & Zheng, Xiangzhong, 2023. "Federal policy announcements and capital reallocation: Insights from inflow and outflow trends in the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Eric Fischer & Rebecca McCaughrin & Saketh Prazad & Mark Vandergon, 2023. "Fed Transparency and Policy Expectation Errors: A Text Analysis Approach," Staff Reports 1081, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2023. "Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Antón Sarabia Arturo & Bazdresch Santiago & Lelo-de-Larrea Alejandra, 2023. "The Influence of Central Bank's Projections and Economic Narrative on Professional Forecasters' Expectations: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2023-21, Banco de México.
    18. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2024. "Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions? The case of inflation in Argentina," Working Papers 300, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Public information; Probability of a recession; Price discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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