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Aggregate unemployment decreases individual returns to education

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  • Ammermueller, Andreas
  • Kuckulenz, Anja
  • Zwick, Thomas
Abstract
Aggregate unemployment may affect individual returns to education through qualification-specific responses in participation and wage bargaining. This paper shows that an increase in regional unemployment by 1% decreases returns to education by 0.005 percentage points. This implies that higher skilled employees are better sheltered from labour market changes with respect to their jobs but they encounter larger wage changes than less skilled employees. We use representative individual data and panel variation in unemployment between German regions and employee groups. We demonstrate that our results are robust with respect to aggregation bias, time lags and potential endogeneity of the unemployment variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Ammermueller, Andreas & Kuckulenz, Anja & Zwick, Thomas, 2009. "Aggregate unemployment decreases individual returns to education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 217-226, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:28:y:2009:i:2:p:217-226
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    4. Adelaida Lillo-Bañuls & José M. Casado-Díaz, 2012. "Individual Returns to Education in the Spanish Tourism Sector during the Economic Crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(6), pages 1229-1249, December.
    5. Regina T. Riphahn & Michael Zibrowius, 2013. "Apprenticeship Training and Early Labor Market Outcomes in East and West Germany," Working Papers 136, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    6. Leszek Wincenciak, 2019. "Evolution of private returns to schooling over the business cycle in a transition economy," Working Papers 2019-19, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
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    8. Ammermüller, Andreas & Lucifora, Claudio & Origo, Federica & Zwick, Thomas, 2007. "Still searching for the wage curve: evidence from Germany and Italy," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-008, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Bindeswar Prasad Lekhak, 2023. "Foreign Aid Effectiveness in the Education Sector: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(9), pages 1-10, September.
    10. By Marianne Haraldsvik & Bjarne Strøm, 2022. "Adult skills and labor market conditions during teenage years: cross-country evidence from international surveys [Is post-secondary education a safe port and for whom? Evidence from Canadian data]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 894-919.
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    12. Tan, Clifford, 2013. "The contribution of university rankings to country's GDP per capita," MPRA Paper 53900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. D. Lederman & W.F. Maloney & J. Messina, 2011. "The Fall of Wage Flexibility," World Bank Publications - Reports 23575, The World Bank Group.
    14. Henderson, Daniel J. & Polachek, Solomon W. & Wang, Le, 2011. "Heterogeneity in schooling rates of return," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1202-1214.
    15. Gu, Ran, 2019. "Specific Human Capital and Real Wage Cyclicality: An Application to Postgraduate Wage Premium," MPRA Paper 98027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Miriam Maeder, 2014. "State-level heterogeneity in returns to secondary schooling in West Germany," Working Papers 147, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
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    18. Krzysztof Kalisiak & Małgorzata Szreder & Kaja Białowąs, 2011. "Finansowy i niefinansowy zwrot z edukacji," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 77-102.
    19. Tuomo Suhonen & Jaakko Pehkonen & Hannu Tervo, 2011. "Spatial variation in the development of the return to university education in Finland, 1970-2004," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1351, European Regional Science Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rate of education returns Wage curve Economic development;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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