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Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market

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  • Roy, Rudra Prosad
  • Sinha Roy, Saikat
Abstract
This study measures the extent of financial contagion in the Indian asset markets. In specific it shows the contagion in Indian commodity derivative market vis-à-vis bond, foreign exchange, gold, and stock markets. Subsequently, directional volatility spillover among these asset markets, have been examined. Applying DCC-MGARCH method on daily return of commodity future price index and other asset markets for the period 2006–16, time varying correlation between commodity and other assets are estimated. The degree of financial contagion in commodity derivative market is found to be the largest with stock market and least with the gold market. A generalized VAR based volatility spillover estimation shows that commodity and stock markets are net transmitters of volatility while bond, foreign exchange and gold markets are the net receivers of volatility. Volatility is transmitted to commodity market only from the stock market. Such volatility spillover is found to have time varying nature, showing higher volatility spillover during the Global Financial Crisis and during the period of large rupee depreciation in 2013–14. These results have significant implication for optimal portfolio choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2017. "Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 368-380.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:368-380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.019
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity; DCC-GARCH; Financial contagion; Portfolio; Volatility spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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