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Real estate investment: Market volatility and optimal holding period under risk aversion

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  • Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier
  • Barthélémy, Fabrice
  • Prigent, Jean-Luc
Abstract
This paper deals with real estate portfolio optimization when investors are risk averse. In this framework, we examine an important decision making problem, namely the determination of the optimal time to sell a diversified real estate portfolio. The optimization problem corresponds to the maximization of a concave utility function defined on both the free cash flows and the terminal value of the portfolio. We determine several types of optimal times to sell and analyze their properties. We extend previous results, established for the quasi linear utility case, where investors are risk neutral. We consider four cases. In the first one, the investor knows the probability distribution of the real estate index. In the second one, the investor is perfectly informed about the real estate market dynamics. In the third case, the investor uses an intertemporal optimization approach which looks like an American option problem. Finally, the buy-and-hold strategy is considered. For these four cases, we analyze in particular how the solutions depend on the market volatility and we compare them with those of the quasi linear case. We show that the introduction of risk aversion allows to better account for the real estate market volatility. We also introduce the notion of compensating variation to better measure the impacts of both the risk aversion and the volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2016. "Real estate investment: Market volatility and optimal holding period under risk aversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 543-555.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:58:y:2016:i:c:p:543-555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.033
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    1. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2015. "The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 121-139, March.
    2. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2007. "Optimal holding period for a real estate portfolio," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(6), pages 603-625, October.
    3. Atkins, Allen B & Dyl, Edward A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Holding Periods for Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 309-325, March.
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    6. Gau, George W & Wang, Ko, 1994. "The Tax-Induced Holding Periods of Real Estate Investors: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 71-85, January.
    7. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, March.
    8. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 59-87, January.
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    11. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 35-80, January.
    12. de Palma, André & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2008. "Utilitarianism and fairness in portfolio positioning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1648-1660, August.
    13. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
    14. David Collett & Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2003. "Timing and the Holding Periods of Institutional Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 205-222, June.
    15. In, Francis & Kim, Sangbae & Gençay, Ramazan, 2011. "Investment horizon effect on asset allocation between value and growth strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1489-1497, July.
    16. Tarbert, Heather, 1998. "The long-run diversification benefits available from investing across geographical regions and property type: evidence from cointegration tests1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 49-65, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate portfolio; Optimal holding period; Risk aversion; Real estate market volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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