[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v40y2014icp81-90.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Xiaoqiang
  • Chen, Qiang
  • Tang, Zhenpeng
Abstract
This paper introduces a new incomplete index and establishes a new optimal hedging model. We find that when the market micro-noise is perfectly negatively correlated with the return of futures market, market incompleteness depends on the relative level of noise volatility. Especially when noise volatility is less than the futures market yield, noise volatility will be offset by return volatility. As a result, complete optimal hedging model emerges. As an aside, it is interesting to note that as different conditional variances derived from different volatility models being applied, the hedge performance tends to be basically consistent with subtle difference: DCC–GARCH model is more likely to execute the hedging with 1:1 ratio, while other multivariate GARCH models would give a hedging ratio with greater probability less than 1:1 and is less likely to be a perfect hedge. Therefore, we believe that a simpler econometric model might produce better empirical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Xiaoqiang & Chen, Qiang & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2014. "Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:81-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.03.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999314001199
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.03.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    2. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2010. "Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2010. "Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1445-1455, November.
    7. A. Andani & J. A. Lafuente & A. Novales, 2009. "Liquidity and hedging effectiveness under futures mispricing: International evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1050-1066, November.
    8. Lafuente, Juan A. & Novales, Alfonso, 2003. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: Evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1053-1078, June.
    9. Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. "Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
    10. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
    11. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    12. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    13. Hsinan Hsu & Janchung Wang, 2004. "Price Expectation and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 167-184, September.
    14. Sweeney, Richard J., 1988. "Some New Filter Rule Tests: Methods and Results," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 285-300, September.
    15. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    16. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    17. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lee, Cheng-few & Shrestha, Keshab, 2003. "Futures hedge ratios: a review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 433-465.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    19. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse, 2002. "Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
    20. Janchung Wang, 2008. "Degree of market imperfections: evidence from four Asian index futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1233-1246.
    21. repec:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:357-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Chang, Chiao-Yi & Lai, Jing-Yi & Chuang, I-Yuan, 2010. "Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 442-449, March.
    23. Cornell, Bradford & French, Kenneth R, 1983. "Taxes and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 675-694, June.
    24. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
    25. Janchung Wang & Hsinan Hsu, 2006. "Degree of market imperfection and the pricing of stock index futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 245-258.
    26. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    27. Hsinan Hsu & Hsing-Chi Wu & Hsien-Yi Lee & Janchung Wang, 2010. "A measurement of the extent of market imperfections between markets and applications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2111-2126.
    28. Kearney, Colm & Patton, Andrew J, 2000. "Multivariate GARCH Modeling of Exchange Rate Volatility Transmission in the European Monetary System," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 29-48, February.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali, 2020. "Discovering interlinkages between major cryptocurrencies using high-frequency data: new evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2016. "Intraday return predictability, portfolio maximisation, and hedging," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 105-116.
    3. You‐How Go & Jia‐Jun Teo & Kam Fong Chan, 2023. "The effectiveness of crude oil futures hedging during infectious disease outbreaks in the 21st century," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1559-1575, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    3. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2014. "Hedging crude oil using refined product: A regime switching asymmetric DCC approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 472-484.
    4. Yudong Wang & Li Liu, 2016. "Crude oil and world stock markets: volatility spillovers, dynamic correlations, and hedging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1481-1509, June.
    5. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin & González-Serrano, Lydia & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2013. "Currency hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 164-182.
    7. Qu, Hui & Wang, Tianyang & Zhang, Yi & Sun, Pengfei, 2019. "Dynamic hedging using the realized minimum-variance hedge ratio approach – Examination of the CSI 300 index futures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.
    9. Wang, Yudong & Geng, Qianjie & Meng, Fanyi, 2019. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A comparison between minimum-variance and minimum-risk frameworks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 815-826.
    10. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hedging functionality of Chinese financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    12. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    13. Qianjie Geng & Yudong Wang, 2021. "Futures Hedging in CSI 300 Markets: A Comparison Between Minimum-Variance and Maximum-Utility Frameworks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 719-742, February.
    14. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Jiarong Tian, 2019. "Modeling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for the USA, the UK, and China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Halkos, George & Tzirivis, Apostolos, 2018. "Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," MPRA Paper 90781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.
    17. Pablo Urtubia & Alfonso Novales & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2021. "Cross-Hedging Portfolios in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence for the LATIBEX Index," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-19, October.
    18. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2019. "Crude oil price shocks and hedging performance: A comparison of volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1132-1147.
    19. Khalfaoui, R & Boutahar, M, 2012. "Portfolio risk evaluation: An approach based on dynamic conditional correlations models and wavelet multiresolution analysis," MPRA Paper 41624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis, 2008. "Hedging effectiveness of the Athens stock index futures contracts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 243-270.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:81-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.