[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v62y2019icp402-414.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of military spending on output: New evidence at the global and country group levels using panel data cointegration techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Ortiz, Cristian
  • Alvarado, Rafael
  • Salinas, Aldo
Abstract
The objective of this research is to examine the effect of the growth rate of military spending on the growth rate of real output in 126 countries using panel data for 1980–2016. We used data from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank and from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. With the aim of capturing the heterogeneity among countries by income level, we divided countries into four groups: upper income, upper middle income, lower middle income, and lower income. Using cointegration and causality techniques for panel data, we found robust empirical evidence that suggests that military spending and real output have long and short-term equilibrium relationships in the different income groups. The results of the causality test suggest that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from real output to military spending in high income countries; and from military spending to real output in upper-middle and lower-middle income countries, and that no causal relationship in either direction exists in lower income countries. A policy implication derived from our research is that medium-low and low-income countries should redirect military spending toward more productive activities to increase long-term economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ortiz, Cristian & Alvarado, Rafael & Salinas, Aldo, 2019. "The effect of military spending on output: New evidence at the global and country group levels using panel data cointegration techniques," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 402-414.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:62:y:2019:i:c:p:402-414
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2018.10.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592618302200
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2018.10.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozturk, Ilhan & Aslan, Alper & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2010. "Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4422-4428, August.
    2. Caruso Raul & Di Domizio Marco, 2015. "The Impact of US Military Spending on Public Debt in Europe (1992–2013): A Note," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 459-466, December.
    3. Gangopadhyay Partha & Elkanj Nasser, 2009. "Politics of Defence Spending and Endogenous Inequality," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 27-49, May.
    4. Biswas, Basudeb & Ram, Rati, 1986. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 361-372, January.
    5. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    8. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "A Causal Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 80-97, March.
    9. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    10. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    11. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    12. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer S., 2003. "Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 567-583, September.
    13. Gupta, Sanjeev & de Mello, Luiz & Sharan, Raju, 2001. "Corruption and military spending," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 749-777, November.
    14. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2014. "The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 474-483.
    15. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "A non-linear defence-growth nexus? evidence from the US economy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 71-82, February.
    16. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    17. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 2002. "Defense Spending Promotes Aggregate Output in the United States--Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 55-60.
    18. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    19. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    20. Giorgio d’Agostino & J. Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2017. "Does Military Spending Matter for Long-run Growth?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 429-436, July.
    21. E. Desli & A. Gkoulgkoutsika & C. Katrakilidis, 2017. "Investigating the Dynamic Interaction between Military Spending and Economic Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 511-526, August.
    22. Hou Na & Chen Bo, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in An Augmented Solow Model: A Panel Data Investigation for OECD Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 395-409, August.
    23. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    24. Salih Turan Katircioglu & Neslihan Kahyalar & Hasret Benar, 2007. "Financial development, trade and growth triangle: the case of India," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(9), pages 586-598, August.
    25. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2015. "Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 15-31, February.
    27. Maddalena Cavicchioli & Barbara Pistoresi, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: the role of military spending," Department of Economics 0078, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    28. Joerding, Wayne, 1986. "Economic growth and defense spending : Granger Causality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-40, April.
    29. repec:bgu:wpaper:163 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2013. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A survey," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 5-11, April.
    31. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1994. "International Peace-Keeping Forces: Economics and Politics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Manas Chatterji & Henk Jager & Annemarie Rima (ed.), The Economics of International Security, chapter 9, pages 81-86, Palgrave Macmillan.
    32. Raul Caruso & Marco Di Domizio, 2016. "Interdependence between US and European military spending: a panel cointegration analysis (1988-2013)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 302-305, March.
    33. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2016. "Military expenditure and economic growth, 1960–2014," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 50-56, October.
    34. Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2016. "Military expenditures, economic growth and spatial spillovers," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 87-104, February.
    35. Chang, Hsin-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin Wei, 2011. "Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2416-2423.
    36. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    37. Zhang, Xiaoyan & Chang, Tsangyao & Su, Chi-Wei & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2016. "Revisit causal nexus between military spending and debt: A panel causality test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 939-944.
    38. Porter, Richard C., 1989. "Recent trends in LDC military expenditures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(10), pages 1573-1584, October.
    39. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    40. Uk Heo & Min Ye, 2016. "Defense Spending and Economic Growth around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 774-796, October.
    41. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    43. Maddalena Cavicchioli & Barbara Pistoresi, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: the role of military spending," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 116, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    44. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
    45. Michael Gerace, 2002. "US Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Spectral Methods," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11.
    46. Tsai-Yuan Huang & Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu, 2017. "Defense–Growth Causality: Considerations of Regime-Switching and Time- and Country-Varying Effects," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 568-584, September.
    47. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2019. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    48. Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Pistoresi, Barbara, 2016. "Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: The role of military spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 23-31.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saba Charles Shaaba, 2022. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 51-100, February.
    2. Feng-Li Lin & Mei-Chih Wang, 2019. "Does economic growth cause military expenditure to go up? Using MF-VAR model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 3097-3117, November.
    3. Irfan, Muhammad & Elavarasan, Rajvikram Madurai & Ahmad, Munir & Mohsin, Muhammad & Dagar, Vishal & Hao, Yu, 2022. "Prioritizing and overcoming biomass energy barriers: Application of AHP and G-TOPSIS approaches," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Wang, Zhangping, 2023. "Do U.S. military bases impair the economic growth of the host countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1655-1665.
    5. Aldo Salinas & Cristian Ortiz & Pablo Ponce & Javier Changoluisa, 2023. "Does tourism activity reduce the size of the informal economy? Capturing long-term heterogeneous linkages around the world," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 305-347, March.
    6. Efayena Obukohwo Oba & Olele Enoh Hilda, 2024. "Analysis of the Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Investment in the Economic Community of West African States: A Heterogeneous Panel Data Approach," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 34(4), pages 58-77.
    7. E. Desli & A. Gkoulgkoutsika, 2021. "Military spending and economic growth: a panel data investigation," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 781-806, August.
    8. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Sherif Khalifa, 2021. "African Junta and Defence Spending: A Capture Effect or Self-preservation? [A Theory of Military Dictatorships]," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(3), pages 285-300.
    9. Qurat Ul AIN & Syed Imran RAIS & Syed Tahir Hussain SHAH & Khalid ZAMAN & Shakira EJAZ & Abdul MANSOOR, 2019. "Empirically testing Keynesian defense burden hypothesis, nonlinear hypothesis, and spillover hypothesis: Evidence from Asian countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(618), S), pages 169-182, Spring.
    10. Thanh Dinh Su & Canh Phuc Nguyen, 2022. "Productive Contribution of Public Spending and Human Capital in Developing Countries Revisited: The Role of Trade Openness," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 66-84, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2019. "Military spending, economic growth and investment: a disaggregated analysis by income group," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 935-958, March.
    2. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    3. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between defence spending, economic growth and development: evidence from a disaggregated panel data analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 109-151, February.
    4. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "A cross-regional analysis of military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth in Africa," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 2885-2915, November.
    5. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3586-3606, January.
    6. Wilman-Santiago Ochoa-Moreno & Byron Alejandro Quito & Carlos Andrés Moreno-Hurtado, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Quality: Revisiting the EKC in Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Dimitrios Karamanis, 2022. "Defence partnerships, military expenditure, investment, and economic growth: an analysis in PESCO countries," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 173, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    8. Christos Kollias & Panayiotis Tzeremes, 2022. "Militarization, investment, and economic growth 1995–2019," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 17-29, April.
    9. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu, 2023. "The effect of military spending on economic growth in MENA: evidence from method of moments quantile regression," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Khalid Zaman, 2019. "Does higher military spending affect business regulatory and growth specific measures? Evidence from the group of seven (G-7) countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(1), pages 323-348, April.
    11. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2022. "Cross–Country Dependence, Heterogeneity and the Growth Effects of Military Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 842-856, October.
    12. Shakoor Ahmed & Khorshed Alam & Afzalur Rashid & Jeff Gow, 2020. "Militarisation, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Myanmar," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 615-641, August.
    13. Chien-Chiang Lee & Sheng-Tung Chen, 2007. "Do Defence Expenditures Spur Gdp? A Panel Analysis From Oecd And Non-Oecd Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 265-280.
    14. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2023. "Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 477-494, May.
    15. Wilman‐Santiago Ochoa‐Moreno & Byron Quito & Daniel E. Enríquez & José Álvarez‐García, 2022. "Evaluation of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in a tourism development context: evidence for 15 Latin American countries," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 2143-2155, July.
    16. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures, defence and economic growth: a global evidence," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 139-177, October.
    17. E. Desli & A. Gkoulgkoutsika & C. Katrakilidis, 2017. "Investigating the Dynamic Interaction between Military Spending and Economic Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 511-526, August.
    18. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777.
    19. E. Desli & A. Gkoulgkoutsika, 2021. "Military spending and economic growth: a panel data investigation," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 781-806, August.
    20. Shreesh Chary, 2023. "The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 808-822, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Military spending; Output; Panel data cointegration; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:62:y:2019:i:c:p:402-414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.