[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v92y2016icp477-491.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The reference forecast of the German energy transition—An outlook on electricity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Knaut, Andreas
  • Tode, Christian
  • Lindenberger, Dietmar
  • Malischek, Raimund
  • Paulus, Simon
  • Wagner, Johannes
Abstract
The enactment of the Energy Concept by the German Government in 2010 set ambitious targets for the future energy transition in Germany. The most prominent goals include a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of the economy and an increase in the share of renewable energy in the whole energy sector. Since the long run effects of these policy measures are hard to assess, science-based policy evaluation methods are needed to identify weak points and areas with a need for action. This paper presents the results of the German Energy Reference Forecast with a focus on the electricity sector. It is based on an investment and dispatch model for the European electricity sector over the planning horizon of the ‘Energiewende’ up to 2050, with an emphasis on the time period up to 2030. We find that almost all targets of the German ‘Energiewende’ are not reached, for the case in which no further measures are undertaken. In particular reductions in GHG emissions fall short to the target value. Contrary to the negative results, e.g., regarding GHG-emissions as well as gross electricity consumption, generation from renewable energy sources will exceed the policy's target value.

Suggested Citation

  • Knaut, Andreas & Tode, Christian & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Malischek, Raimund & Paulus, Simon & Wagner, Johannes, 2016. "The reference forecast of the German energy transition—An outlook on electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 477-491.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:92:y:2016:i:c:p:477-491
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300519
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ciarreta, A. & Zarraga, A., 2010. "Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3790-3796, July.
    2. Bonenti, Francesca & Oggioni, Giorgia & Allevi, Elisabetta & Marangoni, Giacomo, 2013. "Evaluating the EU ETS impacts on profits, investments and prices of the Italian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 242-256.
    3. Kirat, Djamel & Ahamada, Ibrahim, 2011. "The impact of the European Union emission trading scheme on the electricity-generation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 995-1003, September.
    4. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2011. "The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on electricity generation," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00629900, HAL.
    5. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2011. "The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on electricity generation," Post-Print hal-00629900, HAL.
    6. Richard G. Newell & Stuart Iler, 2013. "The Global Energy Outlook," NBER Working Papers 18967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Christian von Hirschhausen, 2014. "The German Energiewend - An Introduction," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. Richter, Jan, 2011. "DIMENSION - A Dispatch and Investment Model for European Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2011-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    9. Michaela Fursch & Dietmar Lindenberger & Raimund Malischek & Stephan Nagl & Timo Panke & Johannes Truby, 2012. "German Nuclear Policy Reconsidered: Implications for the Electricity Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    10. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2011. "The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on electricity generation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00629900, HAL.
    11. repec:aen:journl:eeep3_2_01intro is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jägemann, Cosima & Hagspiel, Simeon & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "The Economic Inefficiency of Grid Parity: The Case of German Photovoltaics," EWI Working Papers 2013-19, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    13. Spiecker, Stephan & Weber, Christoph, 2014. "The future of the European electricity system and the impact of fluctuating renewable energy – A scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 185-197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cherp, Aleh & Vinichenko, Vadim & Jewell, Jessica & Suzuki, Masahiro & Antal, Miklós, 2017. "Comparing electricity transitions: A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 612-628.
    2. Vladimír Hönig & Petr Prochazka & Michal Obergruber & Luboš Smutka & Viera Kučerová, 2019. "Economic and Technological Analysis of Commercial LNG Production in the EU," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Sulaima, Mohamad Fani & Dahlan, Nofri Yenita & Yasin, Zuhaila Mat & Rosli, Marlinda Mohd & Omar, Zulkiflee & Hassan, Mohammad Yusri, 2019. "A review of electricity pricing in peninsular Malaysia: Empirical investigation about the appropriateness of Enhanced Time of Use (ETOU) electricity tariff," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 348-367.
    4. Helgeson, Broghan & Peter, Jakob, 2020. "The role of electricity in decarbonizing European road transport – Development and assessment of an integrated multi-sectoral model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    5. Peter, Jakob, 2019. "How does climate change affect electricity system planning and optimal allocation of variable renewable energy?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Richstein, Jörn C. & Hosseinioun, Seyed Saeed, 2020. "Industrial demand response: How network tariffs and regulation (do not) impact flexibility provision in electricity markets and reserves," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 278.
    7. Knaut, Andreas & Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Decoding Restricted Participation in Sequential Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2017-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 31 Aug 2017.
    8. Thimet, P.J. & Mavromatidis, G., 2022. "Review of model-based electricity system transition scenarios: An analysis for Switzerland, Germany, France, and Italy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Pöstges, Arne & Weber, Christoph, 2019. "Time series aggregation – A new methodological approach using the “peak-load-pricing” model," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Jörn C. Richstein & Seyed Saeed Hosseinioun, 2020. "Industrial Demand Response: How Network Tariffs and Regulation Do (Not) Impact Flexibility Provision in Electricity Markets and Reserves," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1853, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Yousefi, G.Reza & Kaviri, Sajjad Makhdoomi & Latify, Mohammad Amin & Rahmati, Iman, 2017. "Electricity industry restructuring in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 212-226.
    12. Richstein, Jörn C. & Hosseinioun, Seyed Saeed, 2020. "Industrial demand response: How network tariffs and regulation (do not) impact flexibility provision in electricity markets and reserves," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    13. Henckes, Philipp & Frank, Christopher & Küchler, Nils & Peter, Jakob & Wagner, Johannes, 2020. "Uncertainty estimation of investment planning models under high shares of renewables using reanalysis data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    14. Heinrichs, Heidi Ursula & Schumann, Diana & Vögele, Stefan & Biß, Klaus Hendrik & Shamon, Hawal & Markewitz, Peter & Többen, Johannes & Gillessen, Bastian & Gotzens, Fabian & Ernst, Anna, 2017. "Integrated assessment of a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 285-305.
    15. Peter, Jakob & Wagner, Johannes, 2018. "Optimal Allocation of Variable Renewable Energy Considering Contributions to Security of Supply," EWI Working Papers 2018-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    16. Hansen, Kenneth & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2019. "Full energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in Germany in 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-13.
    17. Weiss, Olga & Bogdanov, Dmitry & Salovaara, Kaisa & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2017. "Market designs for a 100% renewable energy system: Case isolated power system of Israel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 266-277.
    18. Xiaoyang Sun & Baosheng Zhang & Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Mikael Höök, 2016. "Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, November.
    19. Maximilian Schutzbach & Steffen Kiemel & Robert Miehe & Ekrem Köse & Alexander Mages & Alexander Sauer, 2022. "Comparative Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of Mono- vs. Bivalent Operation of a Crucible Melting Furnace," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-19, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xie, Li & Zhou, Zhichao & Hui, Shimin, 2022. "Does environmental regulation improve the structure of power generation technology? Evidence from China's pilot policy on the carbon emissions trading market(CETM)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Li, M.W., 2014. "An integrated optimization modeling approach for planning emission trading and clean-energy development under uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 31-46.
    3. Teng, Fei & Wang, Xin & Zhiqiang, LV, 2014. "Introducing the emissions trading system to China’s electricity sector: Challenges and opportunities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 39-45.
    4. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2018. "Flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with European allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 504-518.
    5. Frieder Mokinski & Nikolas Wölfing, 2014. "The effect of regulatory scrutiny: Asymmetric cost pass-through in power wholesale and its end," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 175-193, April.
    6. Leroutier, Marion, 2022. "Carbon pricing and power sector decarbonization: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2013. "Effects of carbon dioxide capture and storage in Germany on European electricity exchange and welfare," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 582-588.
    8. Wang, Xue-Chao & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Wang, Yutao & Foley, Aoife & Huisingh, Donald & Guan, Dabo & Dong, Xiaobin & Varbanov, Petar Sabev, 2021. "Unsustainable imbalances and inequities in Carbon-Water-Energy flows across the EU27," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Hanif, Waqas & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Mensi, Walid & Kang, Sang Hoon & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Nonlinear dependence and connectedness between clean/renewable energy sector equity and European emission allowance prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    10. Abrell, Jan & Kosch, Mirjam & Rausch, Sebastian, 2022. "How effective is carbon pricing?—A machine learning approach to policy evaluation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    11. Tang, Ling & Wang, Haohan & Li, Ling & Yang, Kaitong & Mi, Zhifu, 2020. "Quantitative models in emission trading system research: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Paolo Falbo & Cristian Pelizzari & Luca Taschini, 2019. "Renewables, Allowances Markets, and Capacity Expansion in Energy-Only Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(6), pages 41-78, November.
    13. Golombek, Rolf & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2013. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 568-580.
    14. Franco, Carlos J. & Castaneda, Monica & Dyner, Isaac, 2015. "Simulating the new British Electricity-Market Reform," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 273-285.
    15. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    16. Onyebuchi, V.E. & Kolios, A. & Hanak, D.P. & Biliyok, C. & Manovic, V., 2018. "A systematic review of key challenges of CO2 transport via pipelines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2563-2583.
    17. Bersani, Alberto M. & Falbo, Paolo & Mastroeni, Loretta, 2022. "Is the ETS an effective environmental policy? Undesired interaction between energy-mix, fuel-switch and electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Feng Liu & Tao Lv & Yuan Meng & Xiaoran Hou & Jie Xu & Xu Deng, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transition Paths of Coal Power in China’s Provinces under the Context of the Carbon Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, August.
    19. Andrianesis, Panagiotis & Biskas, Pandelis & Liberopoulos, George, 2021. "Evaluating the cost of emissions in a pool-based electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    20. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wang, Xiaoyu, 2022. "The carbon emissions trading scheme and green technology innovation in China: A new structural economics perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 365-381.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate protection; Renewable energy; Policy evaluation; Electricity market modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:92:y:2016:i:c:p:477-491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.