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The inevitability of capacity underinvestment in competitive electricity markets

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  • Milstein, Irena
  • Tishler, Asher
Abstract
Very tight generation capacity (‘underinvestment’) in competitive electricity markets is a major concern to policymakers. Employing a model with endogenous capacity, capacity mix, operations and with uncertain demand we show that ‘underinvestment’ is due to the rational (non-abusive) behavior of profit-seeking producers and other market participants. Instead of building new capacity that will be idle during most of the year, electricity producers let the electricity price spike (price spikes ‘substitute’ for capacity). These results hold true when each electricity producer is allowed to construct and operate only one (base or peaking) generation technology or both, although capacity mix, industry profits and consumer surplus may differ substantially between these two market structures. We also show, for both market structures, how CO2 taxes affect consumer surplus and the industry's optimal capacity, capacity mix and profits, and demonstrate that total welfare gains from the CO2 tax may be substantial. Finally, we provide the regulator with easy-to-use tools to decide which market structure is to be preferred in terms of social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2012. "The inevitability of capacity underinvestment in competitive electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 62-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:62-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2019. "Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 518-532.
    2. Janda, Karel & Tuma, Ladislav, 2016. "Market viability of photovoltaic plants: merit order effect approach," MPRA Paper 74884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Camadan, Ercument & Erten, Ibrahim Etem & Zhang, Alex Hongliang, 2023. "Market failure or politics? Understanding the motives behind regulatory actions to address surging electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    5. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    6. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    7. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2015. "Can price volatility enhance market power? The case of renewable technologies in competitive electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 70-90.
    8. Ahmad, Hafsa & Jamil, Faisal, 2024. "Investigating power outages in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Pinho, Joana & Resende, Joana & Soares, Isabel, 2018. "Capacity investment in electricity markets under supply and demand uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1006-1017.
    10. Ino, Hiroaki & Matsueda, Norimichi & Matsumura, Toshihiro, 2022. "Market competition and strategic choices of electric power sources under fluctuating demand," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Woo, C.K. & Li, R. & Shiu, A. & Horowitz, I., 2013. "Residential winter kWh responsiveness under optional time-varying pricing in British Columbia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 288-297.
    12. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2011. "Intermittently renewable energy, optimal capacity mix and prices in a deregulated electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3922-3927, July.
    13. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2019. "On the effects of capacity payments in competitive electricity markets: Capacity adequacy, price cap, and reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 370-385.
    14. Woo, C.K. & Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "A wholesale electricity market design sans missing money and price manipulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2017. "Welfare implications of capacity payments in a price-capped electricity sector: A case study of the Texas market (ERCOT)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-285.
    16. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2017. "Fuel cost uncertainty, capacity investment and price in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 233-240.
    17. Andreas Schröder & Maximilian Bracke, 2012. "Integrated Electricity Generation Expansion and Transmission Capacity Planning: An Application to the Central European Region," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1250, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2022. "Wholesale electricity market economics of solar generation in Israel," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S. & Woo, C.K. & Tsai, C.H., 2020. "Texas's operating reserve demand curve's generation investment incentive," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    21. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    22. Chi-Keung Woo & Ira Horowitz & Jay Zarnikau & Jack Moore & Brendan Schneiderman & Tony Ho & Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 29-57, July.
    23. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2018. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 27, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    24. Liu, Cengceng & Li, Nan & Zha, Donglan, 2016. "On the impact of FIT policies on renewable energy investment: Based on the solar power support policies in China's power market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-267.
    25. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2019. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1059-1078.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity markets; Endogenous capacity; Capacity underinvestment; Optimal capacity mix; Price spikes; Market structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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