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Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany

Author

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Frank, Johannes
  • Glas, Alexander
  • Müller, Lena Sophia
  • Perico Ortiz, Daniel
Abstract
We analyze the effectiveness of the German tax reduction on fuel prices (‘Tankrabatt’) that was introduced for three months, starting on 1 June 2022. We use the synthetic difference-in-differences estimator to compare actual retail prices of gasoline and diesel to those in a counterfactual situation without the tax reduction. For gasoline, we find that the tax reduction has been completely passed on to consumers. This result is robust to different approaches of constructing the synthetic control group. For diesel, we find evidence of at least partial pass-through, although the estimates are more sensitive to the employed specification. Moreover, the evidence suggests that pass-through rates for diesel started to decline in August while the tax reduction was still in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas & Frank, Johannes & Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena Sophia & Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323004462
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106948
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alisa Frey & Justus Haucap, 2024. "VAT pass-through: the case of a large and permanent reduction in the market for menstrual hygiene products," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 160-202, February.
    3. Mario Liebensteiner & Jakob Losert & Sarah Necker & Florian Neumeier & Jörg Paetzold & Sebastian Wichert, 2024. "Almost Fare Free: Impact of a Cheap Public Transport Ticket on Mobility Patterns and Infrastructure Quality," CESifo Working Paper Series 11229, CESifo.
    4. Drolsbach, Chiara Patricia & Gail, Maximilian Maurice & Klotz, Phil-Adrian, 2023. "Pass-through of temporary fuel tax reductions: Evidence from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Konjunktur windet sich aus der Stagnation [German Economy in Autumn 2023: German Economy gradually overcomes stagnation]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 107, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuel; Gasoline; Diesel; Taxes; Synthetic control group;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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