[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v72y2018icp486-504.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices

Author

Listed:
  • Yan, Lei
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Sanders, Dwight R.
Abstract
Several studies employ mapping algorithms to infer index positions in WTI crude oil futures from positions in agricultural futures and report an economically large and statistically significant impact of index positions on crude oil futures prices. In this article, we provide direct evidence that the apparent impact of index investment based on mapping algorithms is spurious. Specifically, an idiosyncratic spike in agricultural index positions during 2007–08, coupled with the spike in oil prices, causes the spurious impact of index investment on crude oil futures prices found in these earlier studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:486-504
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988318301282
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 548-574.
    3. Erkko Etula, 2013. "Broker-Dealer Risk Appetite and Commodity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 486-521, June.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:617-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bahattin Buyuksahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2011. "Do Speculators Drive Crude Oil Futures Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 167-202.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    7. Tsvetanov, Daniel & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2016. "Bubbling over! The behaviour of oil futures along the yield curve," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 516-533.
    8. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "Speculative Influences On Commodity Futures Prices 2006-2008," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 197, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    9. Brunetti, Celso & Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Harris, Jeffrey H., 2016. "Speculators, Prices, and Market Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(5), pages 1545-1574, October.
    10. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    11. Christopher R. Knittel & Robert S. Pindyck, 2016. "The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 85-110, April.
    12. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    13. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    14. Dwight R. Sanders and Scott H. Irwin, 2013. "Measuring Index Investment in Commodity Futures Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    15. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    16. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    17. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    18. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    19. Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011. "Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?," Working Paper Series 1346, European Central Bank.
    20. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2015. "Speculation in the Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 621-649, June.
    21. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    22. Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 211-253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11712 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    25. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    26. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 187-205, February.
    27. Shi, Shuping & Arora, Vipin, 2012. "An application of models of speculative behaviour to oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 469-472.
    28. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    29. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    30. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Price relationships in crude oil futures: new evidence from CFTC disaggregated data," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 15(2), pages 133-170, April.
    31. Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2063-2098, October.
    32. Jörg Mayer, 2012. "The Growing Financialisation of Commodity Markets: Divergences between Index Investors and Money Managers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 751-767, June.
    33. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
    34. Brunetti, Celso & Reiffen, David, 2014. "Commodity index trading and hedging costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 153-180.
    35. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2018. "Investor sentiment and market fundamentals: the impact of index investment on energy and metals markets," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 87-102, May.
    36. Jacob Boudouk & Matthew Richardson, 1994. "The Statistics Of Long‐Horizon Regressions Revisited1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 103-119, April.
    37. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 300-318, February.
    38. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    39. Christopher L. Gilbert & Simone Pfuderer, 2014. "The Role of Index Trading in Price Formation in the Grains and Oilseeds Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 303-322, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin T. Bohl & Nicole Branger & Mark Trede, 2022. "Measurement errors in index trader positions data: Is the price pressure hypothesis still invalid?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1534-1553, September.
    2. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Jin & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "The role of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from a two-factor GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Moses M. Kupabado & Juergen Kaehler, 2021. "Financialization, common stochastic trends, and commodity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1988-2008, December.
    4. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. He, Huizi & Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & Li, Xiuming, 2021. "Detecting lag linkage effect between economic policy uncertainty and crude oil price: A multi-scale perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Lin, Jia-Juan, 2019. "Can the VAR model outperform MRS model for asset allocation in commodity market under different risk preferences of investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    2. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Bubbles, Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 345-365, June.
    4. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    5. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2017. "Identifying the Impact of Financialization in Commodity Futures Prices from Index Rebalancing," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258504, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    7. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 187-205, February.
    8. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    9. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Mohammad Isleimeyyeh, 2020. "The role of financial investors in determining the commodity futures risk premium," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1375-1397, September.
    11. Filippo Natoli, 2018. "Analyzing the structural transformation of commodity markets: financialization revisited," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 419, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2017. "Identifying Speculative Demand Shocks in Commodity Futures Markets through Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1646, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    14. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Financial Investments on Agricultural Futures Prices using Changes in Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 759-785, May.
    15. Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Burggraf, Tobias & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Financialisation of natural resources & instability caused by risk transfer in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Chincarini, Ludwig B. & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "The challenges of oil investing: Contango and the financialization of commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Wimmer, Thomas & Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hütter, Marie & Schmid, Florian & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2021. "The impact of speculation on commodity prices: A Meta-Granger analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    18. Xiao, Qin & Yan, Meilan & Zhang, Dalu, 2023. "Commodity market financialization, herding and signals: An asymmetric GARCH R-vine copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Commodity Financialization and Information Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2613-2667, October.
    20. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures; Crude oil; Index investment; Mapping algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:486-504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.