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Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads

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  • Ergemen, Yunus Emre
  • Haldrup, Niels
  • Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir
Abstract
Equilibrium electricity spot prices and loads are often determined simultaneously in a day-ahead auction market for each hour of the subsequent day. Hence daily observations of hourly prices take the form of a periodic panel rather than a time series of hourly observations. We consider novel panel data approaches to analyse the time series and the cross-sectional dependence of hourly Nord Pool electricity spot prices and loads for the period 2000–2013. Hourly electricity prices and load data are characterized by strong serial long-range dependence in the time series dimension in addition to strong seasonal periodicity, and along the cross-sectional dimension, i.e. the hours of the day, there is a strong dependence which necessarily has to be accounted for in order to avoid spurious inference when focusing on the time series dependence alone. The long-range dependence is modelled in terms of a fractionally integrated panel data model and it is shown that both prices and loads consist of common factors with long memory and with loadings that vary considerably during the day. Due to the competitiveness of the Nordic power market the aggregate supply curve approximates well the marginal costs of the underlying production technology and because the demand is more volatile than the supply, equilibrium prices and loads are argued to identify the periodic power supply curve. The estimated supply elasticities are estimated from fractionally co-integrated relations and range between 0.5 and 1.17 with the largest elasticities being estimated during morning and evening peak hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Haldrup, Niels & Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2016. "Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:79-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.008
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    2. Michail I. Seitaridis & Nikolaos S. Thomaidis & Pandelis N. Biskas, 2021. "Fundamental Responsiveness in European Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan, 2023. "Energy prices in Europe. Evidence of persistence across markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Thomaidis, Nikolaos S. & Biskas, Pandelis N., 2021. "Fundamental pricing laws and long memory effects in the day-ahead power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2023. "Estimation of a dynamic multi-level factor model with possible long-range dependence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 405-430.
    6. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 on long memory in returns and volatility of cryptocurrency and stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Daniel Borup & Bent Jesper Christensen & Yunus Emre Ergemen, 2019. "Assessing predictive accuracy in panel data models with long-range dependence," CREATES Research Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Ergemen, Yunus Emre, 2023. "Parametric estimation of long memory in factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1483-1499.
    9. Yang, Yifan & Guo, Ju’e & Li, Yi & Zhou, Jiandong, 2024. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices with spatial dependence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1255-1270.
    10. Didier Nibbering & Coos van Buuren & Wei Wei, 2021. "Real Options Valuation of Wind Energy Based on the Empirical Production Uncertainty," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Yunus Emre Ergemen & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, 2016. "A Dynamic Multi-Level Factor Model with Long-Range Dependence," CREATES Research Papers 2016-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity prices and loads; Panel data models; Fractional integration; Long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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