[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v35y2016icp68-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A risk-return explanation of the momentum-reversal “anomaly”

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey Booth, G.
  • Fung, Hung-Gay
  • Leung, Wai Kin
Abstract
This study investigates the nature of the momentum-reversal phenomenon exhibited by U.S. stock returns from 1962 to 2013. We use cumulative future returns of long–short portfolios, which are formed using prior returns as benchmarks, after portfolio formation to analyze the well-documented momentum-reversal pattern. Contrary to many previous studies our results demonstrate that there is no momentum-reversal anomaly. We show that size (market capitalization), which is often considered a proxy for risk, eventually dominates momentum's initial effect, causing stock prices and, hence, returns to move in the opposite direction. We demonstrate that this latter price movement is likely to be related to institutional trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Booth, G. & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai Kin, 2016. "A risk-return explanation of the momentum-reversal “anomaly”," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 68-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:35:y:2016:i:c:p:68-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092753981500105X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.10.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoniou, Constantinos & Doukas, John A. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2013. "Cognitive Dissonance, Sentiment, and Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 245-275, February.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    4. Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2009. "Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 893-924, February.
    5. Sanjeev Bhojraj, 2006. "Macromomentum: Returns Predictability in International Equity Indices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 429-451, January.
    6. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    7. Timothy C. Johnson, 2002. "Rational Momentum Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 585-608, April.
    8. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    9. Andrea Frazzini, 2006. "The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 2017-2046, August.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1039-1082 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    13. Berk, Jonathan B, 1995. "A Critique of Size-Related Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 275-286.
    14. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
    15. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1998. "An Anatomy of Trading Strategies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 489-519.
    16. Sagi, Jacob S. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2007. "Firm-specific attributes and the cross-section of momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 389-434, May.
    17. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    18. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    19. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    20. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    21. Pavel Bandarchuk & Jens Hilscher, 2013. "Sources of Momentum Profits: Evidence on the Irrelevance of Characteristics," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 809-845.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2145-2176 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    24. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    25. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    26. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:267-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    29. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. "Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
    30. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2012. "Is momentum really momentum?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 429-453.
    31. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yunlin & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert, 2019. "Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 78-101.
    2. Yu, Lin & Liu, Xiaoquan & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai Kin, 2020. "Size and value effects in high-tech industries: The role of R&D investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Seung-Hyun Moon & Yong-Hyuk Kim & Byung-Ro Moon, 2019. "Empirical investigation of state-of-the-art mean reversion strategies for equity markets," Papers 1909.04327, arXiv.org.
    4. Mario Enrique Negrete, 2024. "Constant Leverage Covering Strategy for Equity Momentum Portfolio with Transaction Costs," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Hung-Wen Lin & Kun-Ben Lin & Jing-Bo Huang & Shu-Heng Chen, 2021. "Timely Loss Recognition Helps Nothing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    6. He, Zhifang, 2022. "Asymmetric impacts of individual investor sentiment on the time-varying risk-return relation in stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 177-194.
    7. Seung-Hyun Moon & Yourim Yoon, 2022. "Genetic Mean Reversion Strategy for Online Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Wang, Wenzhao, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: European evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 227-239.
    9. Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Cao, Jiawei, 2024. "Seemingly manipulated anomaly: Evidence from corporate site visits," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    2. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    3. Yang, Yunlin & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert, 2019. "Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 78-101.
    4. Garcia-Feijoo, Luis & Jensen, Gerald R. & Jensen, Tyler K., 2018. "Momentum and funding conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 312-329.
    5. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2018. "Equity market momentum: A synthesis of the literature and suggestions for future work," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-296.
    6. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    7. Hong-Yi Chen & Sheng-Syan Chen & Chin-Wen Hsin & Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Does Revenue Momentum Drive or Ride Earnings or Price Momentum?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 94, pages 3263-3318, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Tse, Yiuman, 2015. "Momentum strategies with stock index exchange-traded funds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 134-148.
    9. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    10. Sina Ehsani & Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2019. "Factor Momentum and the Momentum Factor," NBER Working Papers 25551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2014. "Information ratio analysis of momentum strategies," Papers 1402.3030, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
    12. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    13. Goetzmann, William N. & Huang, Simon, 2018. "Momentum in Imperial Russia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 579-591.
    14. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2019. "Detailed study of a moving average trading rule," Papers 1907.00212, arXiv.org.
    15. Israel, Ronen & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2013. "The role of shorting, firm size, and time on market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 275-301.
    16. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    17. Goulding, Christian L. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Mazzoleni, Michele G., 2023. "Momentum turning points," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 378-406.
    18. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Benjamin Chabot & Eric Ghysels & Ravi Jagannathan, 2009. "Momentum Cycles and Limits to Arbitrage Evidence from Victorian England and Post-Depression US Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 15591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Benjamin Chabot & Eric Ghysels & Ravi Jagannathan, 2008. "Price Momentum In Stocks: Insights From Victorian Age Data," NBER Working Papers 14500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Stock returns; Momentum; Market capitalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:35:y:2016:i:c:p:68-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.