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Markets change every day: Evidence from the memory of trade direction

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  • Axioglou, Christos
  • Skouras, Spyros
Abstract
We present empirical evidence that there are periodic, specifically daily, structural breaks in the trade direction time series process, a fact with implications for several key intra-day characteristics of markets. We suggest that breaks arise as a consequence of daily variation in order flow direction independently of intra-day events and as a consequence of a natural and widespread daily periodicity in the timing of investment decisions. Empirical implementation of our short memory AR model with daily level shifts captures the striking long horizon predictability of trade direction, performs better out-of-sample than the standard long memory ARFIMA alternative and is computationally easier to estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Axioglou, Christos & Skouras, Spyros, 2011. "Markets change every day: Evidence from the memory of trade direction," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 423-446, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:423-446
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank McGroarty & Ash Booth & Enrico Gerding & V. L. Raju Chinthalapati, 2019. "High frequency trading strategies, market fragility and price spikes: an agent based model perspective," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 217-244, November.
    2. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Sam D. Howison, 2015. "Quasi-Centralized Limit Order Books," Papers 1502.00680, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    3. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    4. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    5. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Sam D. Howison, 2015. "The Long Memory of Order Flow in the Foreign Exchange Spot Market," Papers 1504.04354, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    6. Đerđa Dino, 2017. "International Experience in Upper Echelon Theory: Literature Review," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 8(2), pages 126-142, September.

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