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Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads

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  • Zinna, Gabriele
Abstract
This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model allows us to decompose credit spreads and build indicators of EM risks. A key result is that indices of EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads differ because of their specific reactions to global risks (risk aversion, liquidity and US corporate risk). For example, following Lehman's default, EM sovereign spreads ‘decoupled’ from the US corporate market, whereas EM corporates ‘recoupled.’

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  • Zinna, Gabriele, 2014. "Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:20:y:2014:i:c:p:1-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2014.05.002
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    3. Ratha, Dilip & De, Supriyo & Kurlat, Sergio, 2018. "Does governing law affect bond spreads?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 60-78.
    4. Dodd, Olga & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Chan, Wing, 2021. "Evaluating corporate credit risks in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Klein, Christian & Stellner, Christoph, 2014. "Does sovereign risk matter? New evidence from eurozone corporate bond ratings and zero-volatility spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 64-74.
    6. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor, 2015. "What determines the yen swap spread?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Yinghui Chen & Lunan Jiang, 2019. "Liquidity Risk and Corporate Bond Yield Spread: Evidence from China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/9, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    8. Yuanxin Liu & FengYun Li & Xinhua Yu & Jiahai Yuan & Dong Zhou, 2018. "Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    10. Li, Delong & Magud, Nicolas E. & Werner, Alejandro, 2023. "The long-run impact of sovereign yields on corporate yields in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Sohel Azad, A.S.M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2015. "International swap market contagion and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 355-371.
    12. Christian Klein & Christoph Stellner, 2014. "Does sovereign risk matter? New evidence from eurozone corporate bond ratings and zero‐volatility spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 64-74, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; Credit risk; Bayesian econometrics; Systematic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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