[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v49y2014icp4-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deviations from rules-based policy and their effects

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex
  • Papell, David H.
  • Prodan, Ruxandra
Abstract
Rules-based monetary policy evaluation has long been central to macroeconomics. Using the original Taylor rule, a modified Taylor rule with a higher output gap coefficient, and an estimated Taylor rule, we define rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger policy rule deviations, the absolute value of the difference between the actual federal funds rate and the federal funds rate prescribed by the three rules. We use tests for multiple structural changes to identify the eras so that knowledge of subsequent economic outcomes cannot influence the choice of the dates. With the original Taylor rule, monetary policy in the U.S. is characterized by a rules-based era until 1974, a discretionary era from 1974 to 1985, a rules-based era from 1985 to 2000, and a discretionary era from 2001 to 2013. With the modified Taylor rule, the rules-based era extends further into the 1970s and there is an additional rules-based period starting in 2006. We calculate various loss functions and find that economic performance is uniformly better during rules-based eras than during discretionary eras, and that the original Taylor rule provides the largest loss during discretionary periods relative to loss during rules-based periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Deviations from rules-based policy and their effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 4-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:49:y:2014:i:c:p:4-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.09.034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188914002565
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.09.034?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John B. Taylor, 2012. "Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn’t: A Tale of Two Eras," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1017-1032, September.
    2. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David Papell, 2013. "Real-Time Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 2013-140-17, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    8. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    10. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    11. Darren Grant, 2014. "What Makes A Good Economy? Evidence From Public Opinion Surveys," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 1120-1136, July.
    12. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2006. "Estimating restricted structural change models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 373-399, October.
    13. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2012. "Taylor rules and the Great Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 903-918.
    14. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2019. "The Taylor principles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2013. "(Taylor) Rules versus Discretion in U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2013-198-44, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    3. Marinescu, Ion-Iulian & Horobet, Alexandra & Lupu, Radu, 2018. "Dichotomous stock market reaction to episodes of rules and discretion in the US monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 56-66.
    4. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    5. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    6. David H. Papell & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & Ruxandra Prodan, 2016. "Policy Rule Legislation in Practice," Book Chapters, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    7. Teryoshin, Yevgeniy, 2023. "Historical performance of rule-like monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    10. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2021. "Policy Rules and Economic Performance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Jensen Henrik, 2011. "Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed? Evidence and Explanations," Working Papers 2003-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    14. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    15. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Machiko Narita & Ratna Sahay, 2020. "US or Domestic Monetary Policy: Which Matters More for Financial Stability?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 35-65, March.
    16. Narek Ohanyan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy: rules versus discretion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 35-60, July.
    17. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    18. Issing, Otmar, 2013. "A new paradigm for monetary policy?," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    19. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David Papell, 2013. "Real-Time Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 2013-140-17, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    20. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 913-930, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Taylor rules; Rules versus discretion; Tests for structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:49:y:2014:i:c:p:4-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.