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Trade policy changes, tax evasion and Benford's law

Author

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  • Demir, Banu
  • Javorcik, Beata
Abstract
This paper draws attention to import duty evasion as a margin through which firms adjust to changes in trade policy. This margin is different from the other forms of adjustment, as it can be employed very fast and thus it may constitute the initial reaction to the shock before a slower adjustment through the other channels takes place. The study also proposes a new method of detecting tax evasion in international trade, based on deviations from Benford's law. It applies the method in the context of an unexpected policy change in Turkey that increased the cost of import financing. The results are consistent with an immediate increase in tax evasion in the affected import flows, which dies down a year later. A standard approach to detecting tariff evasion, based on “missing trade”, confirms these conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Demir, Banu & Javorcik, Beata, 2020. "Trade policy changes, tax evasion and Benford's law," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0304387820300316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102456
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bussy, Adrien, 2021. "Tariff evasion with endogenous enforcement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Kee, Hiau Looi & Nicita, Alessandro, 2022. "Trade fraud and non-tariff measures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Piotr Lukaszuk, 2021. "You can smuggle but you can't hide: Sanction evasion during the Ukraine crisis," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 71(01), pages 73-125, December.
    4. Schaefer, Kerstin J. & Tuitjer, Leonie & Levin-Keitel, Meike, 2021. "Transport disrupted – Substituting public transport by bike or car under Covid 19," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 202-217.
    5. Renliang Liu & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "What Drives Illicit Financial Flows? An Empirical Study of Trade Data Discrepancies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 371-409, April.
    6. Jerónimo Carballo & Alejandro G. Graziano & Georg Schaur & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "The Effects of Transit Systems on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1083-1098, July.
    7. Xinzheng Shi & Zhufeng Xu, 2023. "Export tax refund and the misreporting by Chinese exporters," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1469-1489, November.
    8. Wang, Delu & Chen, Fan & Mao, Jinqi & Liu, Nannan & Rong, Fangyu, 2022. "Are the official national data credible? Empirical evidence from statistics quality evaluation of China's coal and its downstream industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Asier Minondo, 2024. "How exporters neutralised an increase in tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 1274-1296, March.
    10. Bussy, Adrien, 2023. "Corporate tax evasion: Evidence from international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    11. Al Wazzan, Lynn & Grether, Pablo & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2023. "Measuring misreporting at customs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    12. Loa, Patrick & Hossain, Sanjana & Liu, Yicong & Nurul Habib, Khandker, 2022. "How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the use of ride-sourcing services? An empirical evidence-based investigation for the Greater Toronto Area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 46-62.
    13. Liu, Renliang & Sheng, Liugang & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Faking trade for capital control evasion: Evidence from dual exchange rate arbitrage in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Jade Siu, 2020. "Formalising informal cross-border trade: Evidence from One-Stop-Border-Posts in Uganda," Discussion Papers 20-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; Trade financing; Border taxes; Benford's law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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