(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v79y2006i1p208-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the interest rate-exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Shiu-Sheng
Abstract
In this paper the interest rate-exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of interest rate defence are investigated theoretically and empirically. We construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating Taylor rule in the model proposed by Jeanne and Rose (2002). Mixing the macroeconomic theory of exchange rate determination and the noise trading approach to asset price volatility, we present a model with multiple equilibria, which thereafter implies a possible switching between the regimes of high and low volatility of the exchange rates. The theoretical model motivates us to adopt a Markov-switching specification of the nominal exchange rate with time-varying transition probabilities. By investigating the data of Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, Hong Kong, and Turkey, it is shown that raising nominal interest rates leads to a higher probability of switching to a crisis regime. Thus, the empirical results presented here support the views that high interest rate policy is unable to defend the exchange rate. Unlike other studies which consider linear models only, our findings are robust and consistent over different countries and crisis episodes (Asian 1997 crises, Mexico 1994 crisis, and Turkey 1994, 2001 crises). In addition, this paper provides some evidences supporting the view of ``fear of floating''.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2006. "Revisiting the interest rate-exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 208-224, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:79:y:2006:i:1:p:208-224
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-3878(05)00003-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Hernandez, Leonardo & Montiel, Peter J., 2003. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: Filling in the "hollow middle"?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 336-369, September.
    3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2002. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    5. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, September.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    8. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    11. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2006. "Revisiting the interest rate-exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 208-224, February.
    14. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia’s Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
    15. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    16. Glick,Reuven & Moreno,Ramon & Spiegel,Mark M. (ed.), 2001. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521800204, September.
    17. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
    18. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order," CEPR Discussion Papers 3064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-5.
    20. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1999. "Interest Rates, Risk, and Imperfect Markets: Puzzles and Policies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 59-76, Summer.
    21. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
    22. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    23. Rahmatsyah, Teuku & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Siregar, Reza Y., 2002. "Exchange-rate volatility, trade and "fixing for life" in Thailand," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 445-470, December.
    24. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    25. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    26. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    27. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    28. David M. Gould & Steven B. Kamin, 1999. "The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    29. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1994. "Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_94-1.
    30. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 295-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 297-321, March.
    32. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    33. Dongchul Cho & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in the Korean, Philippine, and Thai Exchange Rate Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 11-35, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, September.
    35. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 2002. "High Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand: An Empirical Investigation of the Traditional and Revisionist Views," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 64-78, February.
    36. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    37. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    38. Murat Doğanlar, 2002. "Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(13), pages 859-863.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    2. Babatunde .Wasiu. ADEOYE & Olufemi Muibi SAIBU, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 544-562, April.
    3. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2006. "Fighting against currency depreciation, macroeconomic instability and sudden stops," International Finance Discussion Papers 848, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Are International Interest Rate Differentials Driven by the Risk Premium? The Case of Asian Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(6), pages 1-14.
    5. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2009. "Determinants of exchange rate regime switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 68-98, February.
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    8. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises: the Role of Debt, Institutions, and Financial Openness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 559-575, August.
    9. Inci Gumus, 2002. "Effects of the Interest Rate Defense on Exchange Rates During the 1994 Crisis in Turkey," Working Papers 0214, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Boorman, Jack & Lane, Timothy & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Bulir, Ales & Ghosh, Atish R. & Hamann, Javier & Mourmouras, Alex & Phillips, Steven, 2000. "Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-67, December.
    11. Kim, Jung-Kwan & Ratti, Ronald A., 2006. "Economic activity, foreign exchange rate, and the interest rate during the Asian crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 387-402, May.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:6:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    14. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.
    16. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2006. "Exchange Market Intervention and Evidence of Post-Crisis Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected East Asian Economies," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-01, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    18. Suman Das & Saikat Sinha Roy, 2021. "Predicting regime switching in BRICS currency volatility: a Markov switching autoregressive approach," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 165-180, June.
    19. Alibey Kudar, 2021. "Interest rate as the last link of chain during crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3189-3203, April.
    20. Christoph Himmels & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2009. "The interest rate - exchange rate nexus: exchange rate regimes and policy equilibria," Discussion Papers 0904, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    21. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:79:y:2006:i:1:p:208-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.