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Investment in new activities and the welfare cost of uncertainty

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
Abstract
Recent literature has highlighted the importance of new activities in development and growth. It was shown that trade distortions such as tariffs are associated with first-order costs stemming from the induced drop in the formation of new activities. This paper demonstrates that uncertainty may induce similar costs. This argument is illustrated in the context of Romer's model of a dependent economy, where foreign direct investment is needed to enable the importation of capital goods and intermediate products used in domestic production. The present paper shows that uncertainty acts as an implicit tax on new activities, whose incidence is (in a certain sense) worse than that of a tariff in Romer's framework. As with a tariff, uncertainty inhibits the formation of new activities. Unlike the tariff, however, uncertainty does not benefit the government with revenue. The welfare cost of uncertainty applies also for a closed economy. The paper shows that uncertainty-averse entrepreneurs discount using a 'hurdle rate' that exceeds the risk-free interest rate. The gap between the two rates increases with the uncertainty embodied in the investment, being determined by the vagueness of the information and by the range of possible outcomes. Hence, growth may be inhibited by business uncertainty, where the 'rules of the game' for new activities are vague.
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Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua, 1997. "Investment in new activities and the welfare cost of uncertainty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 259-277, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:52:y:1997:i:2:p:259-277
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    Cited by:

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    2. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1995. "Volatility, Investment and Disappointment Aversion," NBER Working Papers 5386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thomas Edward Flores & Irfan Nooruddin, 2011. "Credible Commitment in Post-Conflict Recovery," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 23, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Andrea Bassanini, 2006. "Credibility, Irreversibility of Investment, and Liberalization Reforms in LDCs," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(2), pages 203-218, July.
    5. Joshua Aizenman, 1995. "Optimal Buffer Stocks and Precautionary Savings with Disappointment Aversion," NBER Working Papers 5361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fredriksson Per G & Mani Muthukumara, 2004. "Trade Integration and Political Turbulence: Environmental Policy Consequences," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua, 1998. "Buffer stocks and precautionary savings with loss aversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 931-947, December.
    8. Thomas Edward Flores & Irfan Nooruddin, 2009. "Democracy under the Gun Understanding Postconflict Economic Recovery," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(1), pages 3-29, February.
    9. Keefer, Philip, 2004. "A review of the political economy of governance : from property rights to voice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3315, The World Bank.
    10. repec:bla:econom:v:66:y:1999:i:262:p:157-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Daniela Grieco, 2018. "Innovation and stock market performance: A model with ambiguity-averse agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 287-303, April.
    12. Straathof, Bas, 2002. "Micro-uncertainty and growth," Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2001. "A Model of Keynesian under Knightian Uncertainty," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-115, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    14. Brunetti, Aymo, 1998. "Policy volatility and economic growth: A comparative, empirical analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-52, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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