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Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy

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  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
  • Filis, George
  • Floros, Christos
Abstract
This paper provides the empirical framework to assess whether UK monetary policy shocks induce both the UK housing market and the UK stock market to remain at a high-volatility (risk) environment. The Markov regime switching modelling approach is employed in order to identify two distinct environments for each market, namely, a high-risk environment and a low-risk environment, while a probit model is employed in order to test whether monetary policy shocks provide this predictive information regarding the current state of both markets under consideration. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks do indeed have predictive power on the stock market. In addition, in both asset markets, there is a key role for inflation. Results are important especially within the framework of the inflation targeting monetary policy regime.

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  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2017. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:97-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2015.12.002
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    1. Erfani , Alireza & Abbasi , Saeed, 2018. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Regime Changes of Financial Assets," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(3), pages 319-341, July.
    2. Imran Hussain Shaha & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Seeking price and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area: The role of house prices and stock prices," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1707, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    3. Imran H. Shah & Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero, 2021. "Incorporating asset price stability in the European Central Bank's inflation targeting framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2022-2043, April.
    4. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    5. Daniel Dimitrov, 2022. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing with Market Liquidity Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-028/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Zhang, Hanxiong & Auer, Benjamin R. & Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2018. "Performance ranking (dis)similarities in commodity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 115-137.
    7. Chauvet, Marcelle & Jiang, Cheng, 2023. "Nonlinear relationship between monetary policy and stock returns: Evidence from the U.S," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    United Kingdom; Inflation targeting; Markov regime switching; Forecasting; Asset prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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