Selective hedging strategies for crude oil futures based on market state expectations
Author
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100845
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Simpson, Marc W., 2004. "Selectively hedging the US dollar with foreign exchange futures contracts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 75-86, February.
- Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
- Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992.
"The impact of institutional trading on stock prices,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
- Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Scholarly Articles 27692662, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Tenyakov, Anton, 2013. "Filtering and forecasting commodity futures prices under an HMM framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1001-1013.
- Frey, Stefan & Herbst, Patrick & Walter, Andreas, 2014. "Measuring mutual fund herding – A structural approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 219-239.
- Liu, Chunbo & Zhang, Xuan & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
- Zhang, Mengqi & Jiang, Xin & Fang, Zehua & Zeng, Yue & Xu, Ke, 2019. "High-order Hidden Markov Model for trend prediction in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 1-12.
- Lence, Sergio H., 1996.
"Relaxing The Assumptions Of Minimum-Variance Hedging,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-17, July.
- Lence, Sergio H., 1996. "Relaxing the Assumptions of Minimum-Variance Hedging," Staff General Research Papers Archive 5156, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Lence, Sergio H, 1996. "Relaxing the Assumptions of Minimum-Variance Hedging," ISU General Staff Papers 199601010800001039, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Daniel, Kent & Sağlam, Mehmet, 2020.
"Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 379-406.
- Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Daniel, Kent & Saglam, Mehmet, 2018. "Liquidity Regimes and Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Kent D. Daniel & Mehmet Saǧlam, 2018. "Liquidity Regimes and Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 24222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shah, Mohay Ud Din & Shah, Attaullah & Khan, Safi Ullah, 2017. "Herding behavior in the Pakistan stock exchange: Some new insights," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 865-873.
- Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "News-based equity market uncertainty and crude oil volatility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
- Kunkler, Michael, 2021. "Currency hedging for single-currency equity portfolios: Does cross-asset risk matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
- Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Influential factors in crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 77-88.
- Zheng, Chengli & Su, Kuangxi & Yao, Yinhong, 2021. "Hedging futures performance with denoising and noise-assisted strategies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Demirer, Rıza & Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Lien, Donald, 2015. "Does the stock market drive herd behavior in commodity futures markets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-44.
- Dark, Jonathan, 2015. "Futures hedging with Markov switching vector error correction FIEGARCH and FIAPARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 269-285.
- Yu, Xing & Li, Yanyan & Lu, Junli & Shen, Xilin, 2023. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A trade-off between risk and return," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
- Liu, Li & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2020. "Forecasting stock market volatility: The role of technical variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 55-65.
- Topaloglou, Nikolas & Vladimirou, Hercules & Zenios, Stavros A., 2002. "CVaR models with selective hedging for international asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1535-1561, July.
- Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017.
"How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
- Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2013. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-016-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
- Yao, Juan & Ma, Chuanchan & He, William Peng, 2014. "Investor herding behaviour of Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-29.
- Simpson, Marc W. & Dania, Akash, 2006. "Selectively hedging the Euro," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, February.
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Osuntuyi, Anthony, 2018.
"Markov switching GARCH models for Bayesian hedging on energy futures markets,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 545-562.
- Roberto Casarin & Monica Billio & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2014. "Markov Switching GARCH models for Bayesian Hedging on Energy Futures Markets," Working Papers 2014:07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Gkillas, Konstantinos & Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan & Visalakshmi, S., 2022. "Effects of fundamentals, geopolitical risk and expectations factors on crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- Efimova, Olga & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014.
"Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 264-273.
- Olga Efimova & Apostolos Serletis, "undated". "Energy Markets Volatility Modelling using GARCH," Working Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 24 Feb 2014.
- Duan, Yinying & Chen, Wang & Zeng, Qing & Liu, Zhicao, 2018. "Leverage effect, economic policy uncertainty and realized volatility with regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 148-154.
- Ahmad Fawwaz Mohd Nasarudin & Bany Ariffin Amin Noordin & Siong Hook Law & Mohd Hisham Yahya, 2017. "Investigation of Herding Behaviour in Developed and Developing Countries: Does Country Governance Factor Matters?," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-14.
- Sanda, Gaute Egeland & Olsen, Eirik Tandberg & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2013.
"Selective hedging in hydro-based electricity companies,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 326-338.
- Olsen, Eirik Tandberg & Sanda, Gaute Egeland & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2010. "Selective Hedging in Hydro-Based Electricity Companies," MPRA Paper 47820, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2013.
- Jiao, Lei & Liao, Yin & Zhou, Qing, 2018. "Predicting carbon market risk using information from macroeconomic fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 212-227.
- Peter Nystrup & Henrik Madsen & Erik Lindstr�m, 2015. "Stylised facts of financial time series and hidden Markov models in continuous time," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1531-1541, September.
- Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
- Adam, Tim R. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Salas, Jesus M., 2017. "Why do firms engage in selective hedging? Evidence from the gold mining industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 269-282.
- Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015.
"Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
- Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," CEMA Working Papers 676, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wang, Yaw-Huei & Keswani, Aneel & Taylor, Stephen J., 2006. "The relationships between sentiment, returns and volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-123.
- Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
- Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock-commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
- Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
- Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2021. "Realised volatility connectedness among Bitcoin exchange markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
- Philip, Dennis & Shi, Yukun, 2016. "Optimal hedging in carbon emission markets using Markov regime switching models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-15.
- Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
- René M. Stulz, 1996. "Rethinking Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 8-25, September.
- Laura Andreu & Cristina Ortiz & José Luis Sarto, 2015. "Herding in Style Allocations," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 822-844, August.
- Vassilios Babalos & Stavros Stavroyiannis, 2015. "Herding, anti-herding behaviour in metal commodities futures: a novel portfolio-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(46), pages 4952-4966, October.
- Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse, 2002. "Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
- repec:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:357-96 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sam Wylie, 2005. "Fund Manager Herding: A Test of the Accuracy of Empirical Results Using U.K. Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 381-403, January.
- Shrestha, Keshab & Subramaniam, Ravichandran & Peranginangin, Yessy & Philip, Sheena Sara Suresh, 2018. "Quantile hedge ratio for energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 253-272.
- Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Information interdependence among energy, cryptocurrency and major commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1042-1055.
- Beltratti, Andrea & Laurant, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2004. "Scenario modelling for selective hedging strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 955-974, February.
- Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.
- Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang, 2015. "Hedging with Futures: Does Anything Beat the Naïve Hedging Strategy?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2870-2889, December.
- Pok, Wee Ching & Poshakwale, Sunil S. & Ford, J.L., 2009. "Stock index futures hedging in the emerging Malaysian market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-288.
- Campani, Carlos Heitor & Garcia, René & Lewin, Marcelo, 2021. "Optimal portfolio strategies in the presence of regimes in asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
- Chai, Shanglei & Zhou, P., 2018. "The Minimum-CVaR strategy with semi-parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 64-75.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
- Chong, Oiping & Bany- Ariffin, A.N. & Matemilola, Bolaji Tunde & McGowan, C.B., 2020. "Can China’s cross-sectional dispersion of stock returns influence the herding behaviour of traders in other local markets and China’s trading partners?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
- Gemayel, Roland & Preda, Alex, 2024. "Herding in the cryptocurrency market: A transaction-level analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- Yu, Xing & Li, Yanyan & Gong, Xue & Zhang, Nan, 2022. "Evaluating the performance of futures hedging using factors-driven realized volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
- Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Do commodity investors herd? Evidence from a time-varying stochastic volatility model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 281-287.
- Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
- Klein, Arne C., 2013. "Time-variations in herding behavior: Evidence from a Markov switching SUR model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 291-304.
- I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Arjoon, Vaalmikki & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar & Ramlakhan, Prakash, 2020. "Herding in the Singapore stock Exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
- SENARATHNE W Chamil & JIANGUO Wei, 2018. "Do Investors Mimic Trading Strategies Of Foreign Investors Or The Market: Implications For Capital Asset Pricing," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(3), pages 171-205, December.
- I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2018.
"Herding behavior of Dutch pension funds in asset class investments,"
Working Papers
18-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Ian Koetsier & Jacob Bikker, 2018. "Herding behavior of Dutch pension funds in asset class investments," DNB Working Papers 602, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Costa, Filipe & Fortuna, Natércia & Lobão, Júlio, 2024. "Herding states and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
- I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017.
"Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments,"
Working Papers
17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Ian Koetsier & Jacob Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," DNB Working Papers 569, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Santi, Caterina & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2023. "Exploring style herding by mutual funds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
- Cui, Yueting & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2019. "Do closed-end fund investors herd?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 194-206.
- Fang, Hao & Shen, Chung-Hua & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2017. "The dynamic and asymmetric herding behavior of US equity fund managers in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 353-369.
- Ramzi Benkraiem & Mondher Bouattour & Emilios Galariotis & Anthony Miloudi, 2021. "Do investors in SMEs herd? Evidence from French and UK equity markets," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1619-1637, April.
- Yarovaya, Larisa & Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2021.
"The effects of a “black swan” event (COVID-19) on herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
- Larisa Yarovaya & Roman Matkovskyy & Akanksha Jalan, 2021. "The effects of a “black swan” event (COVID-19) on herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets," Post-Print hal-03512931, HAL.
- Fei, Tianlun & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Herding and market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- Wang, Peiwen & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun, 2023. "Do peer effects matter in bank risk? Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
More about this item
Keywords
Selective hedging; Multi-input HMM; Herding effect; Model-driven hedging strategies; State-dependent hedging strategies;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:57:y:2023:i:c:s1044028323000406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.