[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v298y2021ics0306261921006814.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the necessity of hydrogen imports for net-zero emission scenarios in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Burandt, Thorsten
Abstract
With Japan’s current plans to reach a fully decarbonized society by 2050 and establish a hydrogen society, substantial changes to its energy system need to be made. Due to the limited land availability in Japan, significant amounts of hydrogen are planned to be imported to reach both targets. In this paper, a novel stochastic version of the open-source multi-sectoral Global Energy System Model in conjunction with a power system dispatch model is used to analyze the impacts of both availability and price of hydrogen imports on the transformation of the Japanese energy system considering a net-zero emission target. This analysis highlights that hydrogen poses a valuable resource in specific sectors of the energy system. Therefore, importing hydrogen can indeed positively impact energy system developments, although up to 19mt of hydrogen will be imported in the case with the cheapest available hydrogen. In contrast, without any hydrogen imports, power demand nearly doubles in 2050 compared to 2019 due to extensive electrification in non-electricity sectors. However, hydrogen imports are not necessarily required to reach net-zero emissions. In all cases, however, large-scale investments into renewable energy sources need to be made.

Suggested Citation

  • Burandt, Thorsten, 2021. "Analyzing the necessity of hydrogen imports for net-zero emission scenarios in Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:298:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921006814
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117265
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921006814
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117265?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dmitrii Bogdanov & Javier Farfan & Kristina Sadovskaia & Arman Aghahosseini & Michael Child & Ashish Gulagi & Ayobami Solomon Oyewo & Larissa Souza Noel Simas Barbosa & Christian Breyer, 2019. "Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Lester, Mason Scott & Bramstoft, Rasmus & Münster, Marie, 2020. "Analysis on Electrofuels in Future Energy Systems: A 2050 Case Study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Gao, Lu & Hiruta, Yuki & Ashina, Shuichi, 2020. "Promoting renewable energy through willingness to pay for transition to a low carbon society in Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 818-830.
    4. Pao-Yu Oei and Roman Mendelevitch, 2016. "European Scenarios of CO2 Infrastructure Investment until 2050," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    5. Esteban, Miguel & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Bricker, Jeremy & Farzaneh, Hooman & Djalilova, Nigora & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Takagi, Hiroshi & Roeber, Volker, 2018. "100% renewable energy system in Japan: Smoothening and ancillary services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 698-707.
    6. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Otsuki, Takashi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2015. "Energy modeling and analysis for optimal grid integration of large-scale variable renewables using hydrogen storage in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 537-555.
    7. Olfa Tlili & Christine Mansilla & David Frimat & Yannick Perez, 2019. "Hydrogen market penetration feasibility assessment: Mobility and natural gas markets in the US, Europe, China and Japan," Post-Print hal-02265824, HAL.
    8. Oei, Pao-Yu & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Löffler, Konstantin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2020. "Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 103-120.
    9. Esteban, Miguel & Zhang, Qi & Utama, Agya, 2012. "Estimation of the energy storage requirement of a future 100% renewable energy system in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 22-31.
    10. Huntington, Hillard G & Weyant, John P & Sweeney, James L, 1982. "Modeling for insights, not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 449-462.
    11. Fasihi, Mahdi & Weiss, Robert & Savolainen, Jouni & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Global potential of green ammonia based on hybrid PV-wind power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    12. Li, Mengyu & Lenzen, Manfred & Wang, Dai & Nansai, Keisuke, 2020. "GIS-based modelling of electric-vehicle–grid integration in a 100% renewable electricity grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    13. Bartholdsen, Hans-Karl & Eidens, Anna & Löffler, Konstantin & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix & Burandt, Thorsten & Oei, Pao-Yu & Kemfert, Claudia & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2019. "Pathways for Germany's Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(15), pages 1-33.
    14. Sergey Paltsev, 2017. "Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), July.
    15. Chapman, Andrew & Okushima, Shinichiro, 2019. "Engendering an inclusive low-carbon energy transition in Japan: Considering the perspectives and awareness of the energy poor," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Neetzow, Paul, 2021. "The effects of power system flexibility on the efficient transition to renewable generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    17. Konstantin Löffler & Karlo Hainsch & Thorsten Burandt & Pao-Yu Oei & Claudia Kemfert & Christian Von Hirschhausen, 2017. "Designing a Model for the Global Energy System—GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    18. Sugiyama, Masahiro & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Wada, Kenichi & Endo, Seiya & Fujii, Yasumasa & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Kato, Etsushi & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Matsuo, Yuhji & Oshiro, Ken & Sano, Fuminori & Shira, 2019. "Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1120-1131.
    19. Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
    20. Christian von Hirschhausen & Johannes Herold & Pao-Yu Oei, 2012. "How a "Low Carbon" Innovation Can Fail--Tales from a "Lost Decade" for Carbon Capture, Transport, and Sequestration (CCTS)," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    21. Ben Wealer & Simon Bauer & Leonard Göke & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2019. "High-Priced and Dangerous: Nuclear Power Is Not an Option for the Climate-Friendly Energy Mix," DIW Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 9(30), pages 235-243.
    22. Li, Yanxue & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun, 2019. "Potential and sensitivity analysis of long-term hydrogen production in resolving surplus RES generation—a case study in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1164-1172.
    23. Burandt, Thorsten & Xiong, Bobby & Löffler, Konstantin & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "Decarbonizing China’s energy system – Modeling the transformation of the electricity, transportation, heat, and industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    24. Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Long-run power storage requirements for high shares of renewables: Results and sensitivities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 156-171.
    25. Elmar Zozmann & Leonard Göke & Mario Kendziorski & Citlali Rodriguez del Angel & Christian von Hirschhausen & Johanna Winkler, 2021. "100% Renewable Energy Scenarios for North America—Spatial Distribution and Network Constraints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, January.
    26. Pfenninger, Stefan & Staffell, Iain, 2016. "Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1251-1265.
    27. Michal Kaut & Kjetil Midthun & Adrian Werner & Asgeir Tomasgard & Lars Hellemo & Marte Fodstad, 2014. "Multi-horizon stochastic programming," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 179-193, January.
    28. Zhang, Xiaojin & Bauer, Christian & Mutel, Christopher L. & Volkart, Kathrin, 2017. "Life Cycle Assessment of Power-to-Gas: Approaches, system variations and their environmental implications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 326-338.
    29. Shinichiro Fujimori & Ken Oshiro & Hiroto Shiraki & Tomoko Hasegawa, 2019. "Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    30. Pao-Yu Oei, Thorsten Burandt, Karlo Hainsch, Konstantin Löffler and Claudia Kemfert, 2020. "Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 103-120.
    31. Kharecha, Pushker A. & Sato, Makiko, 2019. "Implications of energy and CO2 emission changes in Japan and Germany after the Fukushima accident," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 647-653.
    32. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Aghahosseini, Arman & Gulagi, Ashish & Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Child, Michael & Caldera, Upeksha & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Farfan, Javier & De Souza Noel Simas Barbos, 2021. "Low-cost renewable electricity as the key driver of the global energy transition towards sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huan, Ning & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Sato, Hitomi & Sala, Roser & Goncalves, Lila, 2024. "Perceptions to connections: A multidimensional investigation of hydrogen acceptance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Tabandeh, Abbas & Hossain, M.J. & Li, Li, 2022. "Integrated multi-stage and multi-zone distribution network expansion planning with renewable energy sources and hydrogen refuelling stations for fuel cell vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    3. Shen, Xiaojun & Li, Xingyi & Yuan, Jiahai & Jin, Yu, 2022. "A hydrogen-based zero-carbon microgrid demonstration in renewable-rich remote areas: System design and economic feasibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    4. Obobisa, Emma Serwaa, 2022. "Achieving 1.5 °C and net-zero emissions target: The role of renewable energy and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 967-985.
    5. Hossein Ali Yousefi Rizi & Donghoon Shin, 2022. "Green Hydrogen Production Technologies from Ammonia Cracking," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-49, November.
    6. Kawai, Eiji & Ozawa, Akito & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2022. "Role of carbon capture and utilization (CCU) for decarbonization of industrial sector: A case study of Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    7. Gordon, Joel A. & Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Nabavi, Seyed Ali, 2023. "Socio-technical barriers to domestic hydrogen futures: Repurposing pipelines, policies, and public perceptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    8. Xu Han & Pim Vercoulen & Soocheol Lee & Aileen Lam & Shinya Kato & Toru Morotomi, 2023. "Policy Design for Diffusing Hydrogen Economy and Its Impact on the Japanese Economy for Carbon Neutrality by 2050: Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-23, November.
    9. Huan, Ning & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Sato, Hitomi & Tzioutzios, Dimitrios & Yin, Haohui & Sala, Roser, 2024. "Does accident awareness affect people's risk perception of hydrogen infrastructure and information-seeking behaviour?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    10. Pivetta, D. & Dall’Armi, C. & Sandrin, P. & Bogar, M. & Taccani, R., 2024. "The role of hydrogen as enabler of industrial port area decarbonization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    11. Harada, Kosuke & Yabe, Kuniaki & Takami, Hirofumi & Goto, Akira & Sato, Yasushi & Hayashi, Yasuhiro, 2023. "Two-step approach for quasi-optimization of energy storage and transportation at renewable energy site," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 846-858.
    12. Lopez, Gabriel & Aghahosseini, Arman & Child, Michael & Khalili, Siavash & Fasihi, Mahdi & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Impacts of model structure, framework, and flexibility on perspectives of 100% renewable energy transition decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Löffler, Konstantin & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Oei, Pao-Yu & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix, 2022. "Chances and barriers for Germany's low carbon transition - Quantifying uncertainties in key influential factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    2. Oei, Pao-Yu & Hermann, Hauke & Herpich, Philipp & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lünenbürger, Benjamin & Schult, Christoph, 2020. "Coal phase-out in Germany – Implications and policies for affected regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Plazas-Niño, F.A. & Ortiz-Pimiento, N.R. & Montes-Páez, E.G., 2022. "National energy system optimization modelling for decarbonization pathways analysis: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Investigating the economics of the power sector under high penetration of variable renewable energies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    5. Aghahosseini, Arman & Solomon, A.A. & Breyer, Christian & Pregger, Thomas & Simon, Sonja & Strachan, Peter & Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf, 2023. "Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Gutiérrez-Meave, Raúl & Rosellón, Juan & Sarmiento, Luis, 2021. "The Effect of Changing Marginal-Cost to Physical-Order Dispatch in the Power Sector," RFF Working Paper Series 21-19, Resources for the Future.
    7. Henning Meschede & Paul Bertheau & Siavash Khalili & Christian Breyer, 2022. "A review of 100% renewable energy scenarios on islands," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(6), November.
    8. Anshuman Chaube & Andrew Chapman & Yosuke Shigetomi & Kathryn Huff & James Stubbins, 2020. "The Role of Hydrogen in Achieving Long Term Japanese Energy System Goals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, September.
    9. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Aghahosseini, Arman & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 346-365.
    10. Gerbaulet, Clemens & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia & Lorenz, Casimir & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "European electricity sector decarbonization under different levels of foresight," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 141, pages 973-987.
    11. Leonard Goke & Jens Weibezahn & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2021. "A collective blueprint, not a crystal ball: How expectations and participation shape long-term energy scenarios," Papers 2112.04821, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    12. Oei, Pao-Yu & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Löffler, Konstantin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2020. "Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 103-120.
    13. Galván, Antonio & Haas, Jannik & Moreno-Leiva, Simón & Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Nowak, Wolfgang & Palma-Benke, Rodrigo & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Exporting sunshine: Planning South America’s electricity transition with green hydrogen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    14. Galimova, Tansu & Satymov, Rasul & Keiner, Dominik & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Sustainable energy transition of Greenland and its prospects as a potential Arctic e-fuel and e-chemical export hub for Europe and East Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    15. Papadis, Elisa & Tsatsaronis, George, 2020. "Challenges in the decarbonization of the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    16. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Haas, Jannik & Moreno-Leiva, Simón & Junne, Tobias & Chen, Po-Jung & Pamparana, Giovanni & Nowak, Wolfgang & Kracht, Willy & Ortiz, Julián M., 2020. "Copper mining: 100% solar electricity by 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    18. Kueppers, Martin & Paredes Pineda, Stephany Nicole & Metzger, Michael & Huber, Matthias & Paulus, Simon & Heger, Hans Joerg & Niessen, Stefan, 2021. "Decarbonization pathways of worldwide energy systems – Definition and modeling of archetypes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    19. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Aghahosseini, Arman & Gulagi, Ashish & Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Child, Michael & Caldera, Upeksha & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Farfan, Javier & De Souza Noel Simas Barbos, 2021. "Low-cost renewable electricity as the key driver of the global energy transition towards sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    20. Hainsch, Karlo & Löffler, Konstantin & Burandt, Thorsten & Auer, Hans & Crespo del Granado, Pedro & Pisciella, Paolo & Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian, 2022. "Energy transition scenarios: What policies, societal attitudes, and technology developments will realize the EU Green Deal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:298:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921006814. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.